气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Cooling demand in integrated assessment models: A methodological review

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abb90a
	Cooling demand in integrated assessment models: A methodological review
	Colelli F.P.; Cian E.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:11
英文摘要	The paper systematically reviews and compares 88 scenarios of energy demand in commercial and residential buildings that include the additional energy use or savings induced by thermal adaptation in heating and cooling needs at global level. The resulting studies are grouped in a novel classification that makes it possible to systematically understand why the energy projections of integrated assessment models vary depending on how changes in climatic conditions and the associated adaptation needs are modeled. Projections underestimate the energy demand of the building sector when it is driven only by income, population, unchanging climatic conditions and their associated adaptation needs. Across the studies reviewed, already by 2050 climate change will induce a median 30% (90%) percentage variation of a building's energy demand for cooling and a median -8% (-24%) percentage variation for heating, leading to a 2% (13%) increase when cooling and heating are combined, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 1.9 (8.5). The results underscore that models lacking extensive margin adjustments, and models that focus on residential demand, highly underestimate the additional cooling needs of the building sector. Topics that deserve further investigation regard improving the characterization of adopting energy-using goods that provide thermal adaptation services and better articulating the heterogeneous needs across sectors. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	adaptation; climate change; energy demand; integrated assessment models; space cooling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Energy management; Energy utilization; Housing; Adaptation needs; Building sectors; Climatic conditions; Energy projections; Heating and cooling; Integrated assessment models; Residential building; Thermal adaptation; Service industry; adaptation; climate change; climate conditions; cooling; demand-side management; energy use; integrated approach; methodology
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153487
作者单位	Department of Economics, Ca'Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Milan, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Colelli F.P.,Cian E.D.. Cooling demand in integrated assessment models: A methodological review[J],2020,15(11).
APA	Colelli F.P.,&Cian E.D..(2020).Cooling demand in integrated assessment models: A methodological review.Environmental Research Letters,15(11).
MLA	Colelli F.P.,et al."Cooling demand in integrated assessment models: A methodological review".Environmental Research Letters 15.11(2020).