气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering could lower future risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in Cape Town

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abbf13
	Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering could lower future risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in Cape Town
	Odoulami R.C.; New M.; Wolski P.; Guillemet G.; Pinto I.; Lennard C.; Muri H.; Tilmes S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:12
英文摘要	Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is estimated to have increased the likelihood of the 2015-2017 Western Cape drought, also called 'Day Zero' drought, by a factor of three, with a projected additional threefold increase of risk in a world with 2 C warming. Here, we assess the potential for geoengineering using stratospheric aerosols injection (SAI) to offset the risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in a high emission future climate using climate model simulations from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project. Our findings suggest that keeping the global mean temperature at 2020 levels through SAI would offset the projected end century risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts by approximately 90%, keeping the risk of such droughts similar to today's level. Precipitation is maintained at present-day levels in the simulations analysed here, because SAI (i) keeps westerlies near the South Western Cape in the future, as in the present-day, and (ii) induces the reduction or reversal of the upward trend in southern annular mode. These results are, however, specific to the SAI design considered here because using different model, different SAI deployment experiments, or analysing a different location might lead to different conclusions. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	attribution science; Cape Town; Day Zero; drought; geoengineering; solar radiation management; stratospheric aerosol injection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Drought; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Anthropogenic forcing; Climate model simulations; Future climate; Geoengineering; Global-mean temperature; Southern Annular Mode; Stratospheric aerosols; Upward trend; Climate models; aerosol; cloud; drought; stratosphere; Cape Town; South Africa; Western Cape; Trixis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153466
作者单位	African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Institut National des Sciences Appliquées, Lyon, France; Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Industrial Ecology Programme, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; Atmospheric Chemistry Observations, Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Odoulami R.C.,New M.,Wolski P.,et al. Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering could lower future risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in Cape Town[J],2020,15(12).
APA	Odoulami R.C..,New M..,Wolski P..,Guillemet G..,Pinto I..,...&Tilmes S..(2020).Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering could lower future risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in Cape Town.Environmental Research Letters,15(12).
MLA	Odoulami R.C.,et al."Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering could lower future risk of 'Day Zero' level droughts in Cape Town".Environmental Research Letters 15.12(2020).