气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2019.1634507
	Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy
	Silva Herran D.; Fujimori S.; Kainuma M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	14693062
起始页码	1117
结束页码	1131
卷号	19 期号:9
英文摘要	Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect. Key policy insights For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS. The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power. Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	Climate mitigation targets; Japan; macroeconomic impact; scenario
语种	英语
scopus关键词	alternative energy; economic impact; environmental policy; macroeconomics; nuclear power plant; scenario analysis; Japan
来源期刊	Climate Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153453
作者单位	Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Hayama, Japan; Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto-city, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Silva Herran D.,Fujimori S.,Kainuma M.. Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy[J],2019,19(9).
APA	Silva Herran D.,Fujimori S.,&Kainuma M..(2019).Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy.Climate Policy,19(9).
MLA	Silva Herran D.,et al."Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy".Climate Policy 19.9(2019).