气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey

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DOI	10.1080/14693062.2019.1635875
	How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey
	Karapinar B.; Dudu H.; Geyik O.; Yakut A.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	14693062
起始页码	1157
结束页码	1172
卷号	19 期号:9
英文摘要	This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyse how a carbon tax and/or a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) would affect macroeconomic parameters in Turkey. The modelling work is based on three main policy options for the government by 2030, in the context of Turkey’s mitigation target under its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), that is, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 21% from its Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030: (i) improving the productivity of renewable energy by 1% per annum, a target already included in the INDC, (ii) introducing a new flat rate tax of 15% per ton of CO2 (of a reference carbon price in world markets) imposed on emissions originating from carbon-intensive sectors, and (iii) introducing a new ETS with caps on emission permits. Our base path scenario projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be much lower than Turkey’s BAU trajectory of growth from 430 Mt CO2-eq in 2013 to 1.175 Mt CO2-eq by 2030, implying that the government’s commitment is largely redundant. On the other hand, if the official target is assumed to be only a simple reduction percentage in 2030 (by 21%), but based on our more realistic base path, the government’s current renewable energy plans will not be sufficient to reach it. Turkey’s official INDC is based on over-optimistic assumptions of GDP growth and a highly carbon-intensive development pathway; A carbon tax and/or an ETS would be required to reach the 21% reduction target over a realistic base path scenario for 2030; The policy options considered in this paper have some effects on major sectors’ shares in total value-added. Yet the reduction in the shares of agriculture, industry, and transportation does not go beyond 1%, while the service sector seems to benefit from most of the policy options; Overall employment would be affected positively by the renewable energy target, carbon tax, and ETS through the creation of new jobs; Unemployment rates are lower, economic growth is stronger, and households become better off to a larger extent under an ETS than carbon taxation. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	carbon tax; climate policy; computable general equilibrium modelling; emission trading; Mitigation; Turkey
语种	英语
scopus关键词	computable general equilibrium analysis; economic growth; emissions trading; greenhouse gas; macroeconomics; pollution policy; pollution tax; scenario analysis; Turkey
来源期刊	Climate Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153451
作者单位	Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University, Istanbul, Turkey; The World Bank, Washington, DC, United States; School of Life & Env. Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Australia; The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Karapinar B.,Dudu H.,Geyik O.,et al. How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey[J],2019,19(9).
APA	Karapinar B.,Dudu H.,Geyik O.,&Yakut A.M..(2019).How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey.Climate Policy,19(9).
MLA	Karapinar B.,et al."How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey".Climate Policy 19.9(2019).