气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893
	Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement
	Glynn J.; Gargiulo M.; Chiodi A.; Deane P.; Rogan F.; Ó Gallachóir B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	14693062
起始页码	30
结束页码	42
卷号	19 期号:1
英文摘要	The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in. Key policy insights Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system. The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors. Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization. Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C. Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy. © 2018, © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	Carbon budgets; climate change; climate mitigation; decarbonization; equity; ETSAP; integrated energy system models; macroeconomic feedback; Paris Agreement; TIMES-MACRO
语种	英语
scopus关键词	abatement cost; carbon budget; carbon emission; climate change; economic growth; emission control; environmental policy; international agreement; investment; Ireland
来源期刊	Climate Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153440
作者单位	MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; School of Engineering, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; E4SMA S.r.l., Turin, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Glynn J.,Gargiulo M.,Chiodi A.,et al. Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement[J],2019,19(1).
APA	Glynn J.,Gargiulo M.,Chiodi A.,Deane P.,Rogan F.,&Ó Gallachóir B..(2019).Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement.Climate Policy,19(1).
MLA	Glynn J.,et al."Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement".Climate Policy 19.1(2019).