气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2018.1490243
	Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana
	Baek Y.J.; Jung T.Y.; Kang S.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	14693062
起始页码	219
结束页码	230
卷号	19 期号:2
英文摘要	The Government of Botswana has pledged a nationally determined contribution (NDC) as a commitment to the Paris Agreement. For the power sector, the NDC states that the government expects renewable energy (RE) to meet 25% of peak electricity demand by 2030. However, due to high initial cost of RE technologies, the government plans to maintain a coal-based power system in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to examine Botswana’s national plan from an economic perspective, using scenario and cost analysis, to explore the possibility of the power sector’s low carbon transition in the light of Botswana’s NDC. Five scenarios are designed to reflect a range of investment cost changes of RE technologies. While most scenarios only achieve 19% (P3, P4 and P5) and 54% (P6) of the NDC’s power sector target, the P7 scenario far exceeds the goal by achieving 188% of the NDC target. Furthermore, as the difference of levelized cost of electricity among the scenarios is minimal, the P7 scenario is the most attractive pathway for the government. Even for other scenarios, the government should still deploy the suggested capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) as it is both economically and socially beneficial in the long term. However, in these cases, the government’s political will to meet the NDC’s power sector target and to promote the solar PV industry will be critical in designing future power sector policies. Key policy insights Model results show coal as the cheapest resource for electricity generation in Botswana up to 2030, but the cost competitiveness of solar photovoltaic (PV) against coal will continue to increase over time. It is economically and socially beneficial to adjust the current national plan and substitute some share of coal with solar PV in the future energy mix. Government support is critical in achieving the power sector’s NDC target, as cost reduction of solar PV alone does not guarantee success. Encouraging independent power producers (IPP) with financial support mechanisms would be a suitable business model for developing the renewable energy industry. © 2018, © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	Botswana; electricity demand forecasting; LCOE; low carbon scenarios; NDC; power sector
语种	英语
scopus关键词	alternative energy; carbon emission; cost analysis; demand analysis; electricity generation; electricity industry; emission control; energy policy; environmental economics; forecasting method; national planning; technological change; Botswana
来源期刊	Climate Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153430
作者单位	Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea; Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Economics & Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Baek Y.J.,Jung T.Y.,Kang S.J.. Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana[J],2019,19(2).
APA	Baek Y.J.,Jung T.Y.,&Kang S.J..(2019).Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana.Climate Policy,19(2).
MLA	Baek Y.J.,et al."Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana".Climate Policy 19.2(2019).