气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/14693062.2019.1570064
	Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies
	Golub A.; Lugovoy O.; Potashnikov V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	14693062
起始页码	716
结束页码	724
卷号	19 期号:6
英文摘要	Russia has significant potential for reducing its carbon emissions. However, investment in new low-carbon technologies has significant risks. Ambiguous energy and climate policy in Russia, along with deterioration of the country's investment climate, create investment barriers that are well described in qualitative terms in the literature. This paper attempts to provide a quantitative analysis of these barriers. For this numerical experiment, we apply the RU-TIMES model. Using a real options methodology, we estimate the risk-adjusted cost of capital in the Russian energy sector (including energy production and consumption technologies represented in the TIMES framework) to be approximately 43% (including a risk-free interest rate) and demonstrate the high risk of investment into energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. Any future low-carbon emissions pathway depends on the ability of the Russian government to reduce climate and energy policy uncertainties, and to reduce financial risks through improvements of the general investment climate. Key policy insights The high cost of capital investment into Russian energy production and consumption may prevent the adoption of new energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. These investment risks, if not addressed, will delay Russia's low-carbon transition for the coming decades. Adopting a clear and unambiguous long-term climate and energy policy is important to reduce these risks and alleviate some of the barriers to the new technologies. The first step could be ratification of the Paris Agreement and adoption of a long-term emission target for the period up to 2050. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	barriers to new technologies; investment risks; low-carbon transition; real options analysis; Russia
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153394
作者单位	Environmental Science, American University, Washington, DC, United States; Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC, United States; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Golub A.,Lugovoy O.,Potashnikov V.. Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies[J],2019,19(6).
APA	Golub A.,Lugovoy O.,&Potashnikov V..(2019).Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies.Climate Policy,19(6).
MLA	Golub A.,et al."Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies".Climate Policy 19.6(2019).