气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

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DOI	10.1080/14693062.2019.1617667
	Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador
	Carvajal P.E.; Li F.G.N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	14693062
起始页码	974
结束页码	987
卷号	19 期号:8
英文摘要	Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonization efforts for Ecuador’s power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimization model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories. Key policy insights Ecuador’s hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region. Given Ecuador’s seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed. Ecuador’s NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
英文关键词	Ecuador; energy modelling; Hydropower; NDC; renewable energy
语种	英语
scopus关键词	alternative energy; carbon emission; electricity; emission control; energy policy; greenhouse gas; hydroelectric power; modeling; Ecuador
来源期刊	Climate Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153379
作者单位	UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carvajal P.E.,Li F.G.N.. Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador[J],2019,19(8).
APA	Carvajal P.E.,&Li F.G.N..(2019).Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador.Climate Policy,19(8).
MLA	Carvajal P.E.,et al."Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador".Climate Policy 19.8(2019).