气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene

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DOI	10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020
	Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene
	Inglis G.N.; Bragg F.; Burls N.J.; Cramwinckel M.J.; Evans D.; Foster G.L.; Huber M.; Lunt D.J.; Siler N.; Steinig S.; Tierney J.E.; Wilkinson R.; Anagnostou E.; M. De Boer A.; Dunkley Jones T.; Edgar K.M.; Hollis C.J.; Hutchinson D.K.; Pancost R.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	1953
结束页码	1968
卷号	16 期号:5
英文摘要	Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth s history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (9 to 23 C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 C (22.3 to 28.3 C), 31.6 C (27.2 to 34.5 C), and 27.0 C (23.2 to 29.7 C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are 10 to 16 C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large "signal" associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that "bulk" equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 C (2.4 to 6.8 C), 3.6 C (2.3 to 4.7 C), and 3.1 C (1.8 to 4.4 C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (1:5 per doubling CO2). © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; Eocene; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Paleocene; Paleocene-Eocene boundary; paleoclimate; Paleogene
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153185
作者单位	School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Organic Geochemistry Unit, School of Chemistry, School of Earth Sciences, Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Institute of Geosciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, United States; College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, 1040 E 4th St, Tucson, United States; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; G...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Inglis G.N.,Bragg F.,Burls N.J.,et al. Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene[J],2020,16(5).
APA	Inglis G.N..,Bragg F..,Burls N.J..,Cramwinckel M.J..,Evans D..,...&Pancost R.D..(2020).Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene.Climate of the Past,16(5).
MLA	Inglis G.N.,et al."Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene".Climate of the Past 16.5(2020).