气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

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DOI	10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020
	Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
	de Nooijer W.; Zhang Q.; Li Q.; Zhang Q.; Li X.; Zhang Z.; Guo C.; Nisancioglu K.H.; Haywood A.M.; Tindall J.C.; Hunter S.J.; Dowsett H.J.; Stepanek C.; Lohmann G.; Otto-Bliesner B.L.; Feng R.; Sohl L.E.; Chandler M.A.; Tan N.; Contoux C.; Ramstein G.; Baatsen M.L.J.; Von Der Heydt A.S.; Chandan D.; Peltier W.R.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Chan W.-L.; Kamae Y.; Brierley C.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	2325
结束页码	2341
卷号	16 期号:6
英文摘要	Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60-90_ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multimodel mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from -3:0 to -10:4×106 km2, with aMMM anomaly of -5:6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53% compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer seaice- free conditions (≤ 1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153173
作者单位	Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom; Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, United States; Alfred Wegener Institute - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany; Palaeo and Polar Climate Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Department of Geosciences, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of ConnecticutCT 06269, United States; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; NASA Go...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	de Nooijer W.,Zhang Q.,Li Q.,et al. Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations[J],2020,16(6).
APA	de Nooijer W..,Zhang Q..,Li Q..,Zhang Q..,Li X..,...&Brierley C.M..(2020).Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations.Climate of the Past,16(6).
MLA	de Nooijer W.,et al."Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations".Climate of the Past 16.6(2020).