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DOI10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117984
Ambient temperature and relative humidity as possible drivers of the hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Zhejiang Province, China
Lau S.Y.-F.; Chen E.; Kirran N.M.; Cai J.; Wang M.H.; Zee B.C.-Y.; Zhao S.; Chong K.C.; Wang X.
发表日期2021
ISSN13522310
卷号244
英文摘要Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common communicable disease among children and has been a global health problem in recent decades. Literature has shown that meteorological factors possibly drive the epidemic of HFMD, but the natures differ across regions. To elucidate the associations between meteorological factors and the epidemic of HFMD in Zhejiang province, China, the incidence rate and the number of probable and laboratory-confirmed cases of HFMD as well as meteorological factors (ambient temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall, wind speed, and total sunshine duration) during the year of 2013–2017 in the province were modelled by the Bayesian hierarchical Poisson spatiotemporal model with distributed lag nonlinear components, so as to capture spatiotemporal associations and potentially nonlinear or lagged effects of the meteorological factors. During the study period, there were altogether 689,898 HFMD cases in Zhejiang province, and the disease exhibited a strong spatiotemporal association. On average, Ningbo had the highest weekly incidence rate of 6.83/100,000. The cumulative adjusted relative risk (ARR) increased with average ambient temperature until 24.6 °C (ARR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04–1.30), at which the pattern reverted. The cumulative ARR also increased statistically significantly with average relative humidity. It was estimated that 1% increase in relative humidity corresponded to 1.07%–1.16% increase in ARR. Total rainfall, average wind speed, and total sunshine duration were not statistically significantly associated with the incidence rate. In conclusion, the existence of the associations between meteorological factors and the incidence rate of HFMD implies that the local government could make use of meteorological information for disease surveillance, allowing early preparation for the outbreak of HFMD when favorable conditions (wet and moderately hot) are forecasted, in order to reduce the heavy burden induced by the disease. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词Ambient temperature; Bayesian hierarchical Poisson spatiotemporal model; Distributed nonlinear lag; HFMD; Relative humidity
语种英语
scopus关键词Epidemiology; Rain; Wind; Communicable disease; Disease surveillance; Favorable conditions; Meteorological factors; Meteorological information; Nonlinear components; Spatio-temporal models; Temperature and relative humidity; Temperature; rain; air temperature; ambient air; disease; disease incidence; epidemic; health risk; local government; Poisson ratio; relative humidity; spatiotemporal analysis; Article; Bayes theorem; China; controlled study; disease surveillance; environmental temperature; epidemic; global health; government; hand foot and mouth disease; human; humidity; incidence; laboratory test; major clinical study; meteorological phenomena; nonlinear system; Poisson distribution; priority journal; risk factor; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; sunlight; wind speed; China; Ningbo; Zhejiang
来源期刊Atmospheric Environment
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/152967
作者单位School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Zhejiang Province Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China; Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Centre for Health Policy and System Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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Lau S.Y.-F.,Chen E.,Kirran N.M.,et al. Ambient temperature and relative humidity as possible drivers of the hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Zhejiang Province, China[J],2021,244.
APA Lau S.Y.-F..,Chen E..,Kirran N.M..,Cai J..,Wang M.H..,...&Wang X..(2021).Ambient temperature and relative humidity as possible drivers of the hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Zhejiang Province, China.Atmospheric Environment,244.
MLA Lau S.Y.-F.,et al."Ambient temperature and relative humidity as possible drivers of the hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Zhejiang Province, China".Atmospheric Environment 244(2021).
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