气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial

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DOI	10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222
	Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial
	Thomas Z.A.; Jones R.T.; Turney C.S.M.; Golledge N.; Fogwill C.; Bradshaw C.J.A.; Menviel L.; McKay N.P.; Bird M.; Palmer J.; Kershaw P.; Wilmshurst J.; Muscheler R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0277-3791
卷号	233
英文摘要	Irreversible shifts of large-scale components of the Earth system (so-called ‘tipping elements’) on policy-relevant timescales are a major source of uncertainty for projecting the impacts of future climate change. The high latitudes are particularly vulnerable to positive feedbacks that amplify change through atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions. Unfortunately, the short instrumental record does not capture the full range of past or projected climate scenarios (a situation particularly acute in the high latitudes). Natural archives from past periods warmer than present day, however, can be used to explore drivers and responses to forcing, and provide data against which to test models, thereby offering insights into the future. The Last Interglacial (129–116,000 years before present) — the warmest interglacial of the last 800,000 years — was the most recent period during which global temperatures were comparable with low-end 21st Century projections (up to 2 °C warmer, with temperature increase amplified over polar latitudes), providing a potentially useful analogue for future change. Substantial environmental changes happened during this time. Here we synthesise the nature and timing of potential high-latitude tipping elements during the Last Interglacial, including sea ice, extent of the boreal forest, permafrost, ocean circulation, and ice sheets/sea level. We also review the thresholds and feedbacks that likely operated through this period. Notably, substantial ice mass loss from Greenland, the West Antarctic, and possibly sectors of the East Antarctic drove a 6–9 m rise in global sea level. This was accompanied by reduced summer sea-ice extent, poleward-extended boreal forest, and reduced areas of permafrost. Despite current chronological uncertainties, we find that tipping elements in the high latitudes all experienced rapid and abrupt change (within 1–2 millennia of each other) across both hemispheres, while recovery to prior conditions took place over multi-millennia. Our synthesis demonstrates important feedback loops between tipping elements, amplifying polar and global change during the Last Interglacial. The high sensitivity and tight interconnections between polar tipping elements suggests that they could exhibit similar thresholds of vulnerability in the future, particularly if the aspirations of the Paris Agreement are not met. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Earth (planet); Forestry; Permafrost; Sea ice; Sea level; Climate scenarios; Environmental change; Global sea levels; Global temperatures; Ice interactions; Last interglacial; Ocean circulation; Temperature increase; Climate change; chronology; global change; Last Interglacial; sea level change; summer; uncertainty analysis; vulnerability; Arctic; Greenland
来源期刊	Quaternary Science Reviews
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/151541
作者单位	Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives (PANGEA) Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence in Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia; Chronos 14 Carbon-Cycle Facility, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; School of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand; GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, 5011, New Zealand; School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, Keele University, Newcastle-under-Lyme, United Kingdom; Global Ecology, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100South Australia 5001, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona UniversityAZ, United States; Sc...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thomas Z.A.,Jones R.T.,Turney C.S.M.,et al. Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial[J],2020,233.
APA	Thomas Z.A..,Jones R.T..,Turney C.S.M..,Golledge N..,Fogwill C..,...&Muscheler R..(2020).Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial.Quaternary Science Reviews,233.
MLA	Thomas Z.A.,et al."Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial".Quaternary Science Reviews 233(2020).