气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of human land use and temperature on community dynamics in European forests

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106458
	Effects of human land use and temperature on community dynamics in European forests
	Milligan G.; Bradshaw R.H.W.; Clancy D.; Żychaluk K.; Spencer M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0277-3791
卷号	247
英文摘要	Climate change and human land use are thought to play a dominant role in the dynamics of European central-latitude forests in the Holocene. A wide range of mathematical and statistical models have been used to study the effects of these variables on forest dynamics, including physiologically-based simulations and phenomenological community models. However, for statistical analysis of pollen count data, compositional data analysis is particularly well suited, because pollen counts give only relative information. We studied the effects of changes in human land use and temperature on European central-latitude forest dynamics at 7 sites over most of the last 10ka, using a stochastic model for compositional dynamics of pollen count data. Our approach has a natural ecological interpretation in terms of relative proportional population growth rates, and does not require information on pollen production, dispersal, or deposition. We showed that the relative proportional population growth rates of Fagus and Picea were positively affected by intensified human land use, and that those of Tilia and Ulmus were negatively affected. Also, the relative proportional population growth rate of Fagus was negatively affected by increases in temperature above about 18∘C. Overall, the effects of temperature on the rate of change of forest composition were more important than those of human land use. Although there were aspects of dynamics, such as short-term oscillations, that our model did not capture, our approach is broadly applicable and founded on ecological principles, and gave results consistent with current thinking. © 2020 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Compositional data analysis; Europe; Holocene; Land use; Paleoclimatology; Stochastic differential equations; Vegetation dynamics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Dynamics; Ecology; Forestry; Physiological models; Population statistics; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Temperature; Community dynamics; Compositional data analysis; Ecological principles; Effects of temperature; Forest compositions; Pollen production; Population growth rates; Relative information; Land use; anthropogenic effect; climate change; community dynamics; ecological modeling; forest dynamics; growth rate; Holocene; Europe; Fagus; Picea; Tilia; Ulmus
来源期刊	Quaternary Science Reviews
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/151306
作者单位	School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GP, United Kingdom; School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt, University, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 7ZL, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Milligan G.,Bradshaw R.H.W.,Clancy D.,et al. Effects of human land use and temperature on community dynamics in European forests[J],2020,247.
APA	Milligan G.,Bradshaw R.H.W.,Clancy D.,Żychaluk K.,&Spencer M..(2020).Effects of human land use and temperature on community dynamics in European forests.Quaternary Science Reviews,247.
MLA	Milligan G.,et al."Effects of human land use and temperature on community dynamics in European forests".Quaternary Science Reviews 247(2020).