气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Bayesian Network risk model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness in the ice-covered Northern Baltic Sea

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.12.018
	A Bayesian Network risk model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness in the ice-covered Northern Baltic Sea
	Lu L.; Goerlandt F.; Valdez Banda O.A.; Kujala P.; Höglund A.; Arneborg L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0025326X
起始页码	440
结束页码	458
卷号	139
英文摘要	The Northern Baltic Sea, as one of the few areas with busy ship traffic in ice-covered waters, is a typical sea area exposed to risk of ship accidents and oil spills in ice conditions. Therefore, oil spill capability for response and recovery in this area is required to reduce potential oil spill effects. Currently, there are no integrated, scenario-based models for oil spill response and recovery in ice conditions. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness, focusing on mechanical recovery. It aims to generate holistic understanding and insights about the oil spill-to-recovery phase, and to estimate oil recovery effectiveness in representative winter conditions. A number of test scenarios are shown and compared to get insight into the impact resulting from different oil types, spill sizes and winter conditions. The strength of evidence of the model is assessed in line with the adopted risk perspective. © 2018 The Authors
英文关键词	Marine pollution; Maritime safety; Oil spill; Recovery effectiveness; Risk analysis; Sea ice
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Bayesian networks; Computer system recovery; Oil spills; Recovery; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Sea ice; Ships; Waterway transportation; Ice conditions; Ice covered waters; Maritime safety; Oil spill response; Risk perspective; Ship accidents; Strength of evidence; Winter conditions; Marine pollution; Bayesian analysis; ice cover; marine pollution; numerical model; oil spill; recovery; risk assessment; sea ice; article; Baltic Sea; comparative effectiveness; oil spill; risk assessment; sea ice; sea pollution; winter; Bayes theorem; ecosystem restoration; ice cover; procedures; season; ship; theoretical model; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea; Bayes Theorem; Environmental Restoration and Remediation; Ice Cover; Models, Theoretical; Petroleum Pollution; Seasons; Ships
来源期刊	Marine Pollution Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/150126
作者单位	Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Marine Technology, Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, P.O. Box 15300, Aalto, 00076, Finland; Dalhousie University, Department of Industrial Engineering, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Research Department, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu L.,Goerlandt F.,Valdez Banda O.A.,et al. A Bayesian Network risk model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness in the ice-covered Northern Baltic Sea[J],2019,139.
APA	Lu L.,Goerlandt F.,Valdez Banda O.A.,Kujala P.,Höglund A.,&Arneborg L..(2019).A Bayesian Network risk model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness in the ice-covered Northern Baltic Sea.Marine Pollution Bulletin,139.
MLA	Lu L.,et al."A Bayesian Network risk model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness in the ice-covered Northern Baltic Sea".Marine Pollution Bulletin 139(2019).