气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating offshore exposure to oil spill impacts based on a statistical forecast model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111213
	Estimating offshore exposure to oil spill impacts based on a statistical forecast model
	Wang D.; Guo W.; Kong S.; Xu T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0025326X
卷号	156
英文摘要	A statistical oil spill risk forecast model in support of emergency response and environmental risk assessment is presented by combing the deterministic model, probabilistic strategy and frequency estimation. When applied to evaluate various potential spill sources (oil port, fairway, anchorage and pipeline) in the Zhoushan offshore area, the model provides the probability of slick spatial position, oil slick thickness, and exposure duration of floating slick. An oil spill risk map is generated after integrating multiple spill sources, which is a powerful tool for identifying high-risk areas and developing contingency plan. Impact scope and damage degree vary among different sources because of special local topographical, hydrological, and meteorological conditions, where generally exists high pollution intensity of point-source and wide range of line-source. Huge Changjiang River runoff prevents coastal sea in the north from being contaminated by spilled oil from the southern Zhoushan offshore area. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Oil spill; Risk assessment; Statistical model; Zhoushan offshore area
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Frequency estimation; Maps; Offshore oil well production; Offshore pipelines; Oil spills; Risk perception; River pollution; Deterministic modeling; Emergency response; Environmental risk assessment; Exposure durations; Meteorological condition; Pollution intensity; Probabilistic strategy; Spatial positions; Risk assessment; environmental risk; forecasting method; marine pollution; offshore application; oil spill; point source pollution; spatial analysis; statistical analysis; topographic mapping; article; meteorology; oil spill; pipeline; probability; risk assessment; river; runoff; thickness; forecasting; risk assessment; statistical model; China; Zhejiang; Zhoushan; Zhoushan Island; Zhoushan Islands; Forecasting; Models, Statistical; Petroleum Pollution; Risk Assessment
来源期刊	Marine Pollution Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148943
作者单位	College of Navigation, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou, China; College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China; State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang D.,Guo W.,Kong S.,et al. Estimating offshore exposure to oil spill impacts based on a statistical forecast model[J],2020,156.
APA	Wang D.,Guo W.,Kong S.,&Xu T..(2020).Estimating offshore exposure to oil spill impacts based on a statistical forecast model.Marine Pollution Bulletin,156.
MLA	Wang D.,et al."Estimating offshore exposure to oil spill impacts based on a statistical forecast model".Marine Pollution Bulletin 156(2020).