气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Lech Valley in northern Alps

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2010.122
	Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Lech Valley in northern Alps
	Dobler C.; Stötter J.; Schöberl F.
发表日期	2010
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	207
结束页码	218
卷号	1 期号:3
英文摘要	The objective of this investigation is to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Lech Valley (1,000 km2), a sub-catchment of the Danube River basin located in the northern Alps. An ensemble of nine climate projections is used to simulate the climate of a mid-21stcentury scenario period (2040-2069) and an end-21st-century scenario period (2070-2099). The delta change approach overcame the gap between regional climate models (RCMs) and the hydrological model. An observed 30-year time series (1971-2000) of precipitation and temperature was perturbed according to mean monthly changes between the RCM runs. The hydrological simulations have been employed with the semi-distributed model HQsim in an off-line mode. The climate scenarios show an increase in monthly temperatures and accompanying significant changes in the seasonal precipitation patterns, including an increase in the precipitation during winter and spring and a considerable decrease in the precipitation during summer. The resulting effects on the runoff indicate large, seasonal varying changes. A decrease in monthly runoff during summer and increases in winter minimize the inter-annual disparities between low runoff in winter and high runoff in spring and summer. The overall agreement of RCM runs suggests confidence in the projections. © IWA Publishing 2010.
英文关键词	Alps; Climate change; Delta change; Hydrology; Runoff
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Alps; Climate change impact; Delta change; Hydrological models; Hydrological simulations; Regional climate models; Seasonal precipitations; Semi-distributed model; Catchments; Computer simulation; Hydrology; Lasers; Runoff; Climate change
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148391
作者单位	Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dobler C.,Stötter J.,Schöberl F.. Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Lech Valley in northern Alps[J],2010,1(3).
APA	Dobler C.,Stötter J.,&Schöberl F..(2010).Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Lech Valley in northern Alps.Journal of Water and Climate Change,1(3).
MLA	Dobler C.,et al."Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Lech Valley in northern Alps".Journal of Water and Climate Change 1.3(2010).