气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought forecasting using an aggregated drought index and artificial neural network

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2010.000
	Drought forecasting using an aggregated drought index and artificial neural network
	Barua S.; Perera B.J.C.; Ng A.W.M.; Tran D.
发表日期	2010
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	193
结束页码	206
卷号	1 期号:3
英文摘要	Early forecasting of future drought conditions during continuing dry periods can improve water resources management strategies. In this study, a drought forecasting approach is developed and presented using an aggregated drought index (ADI) and artificial neural network (ANN) using a monthly time step. The use of ADI forecasts the overall availability of water resources beyond the traditional forecasting of rainfall deficiency to represent future drought conditions. The paper compares two types of ANN; namely, recursive multi-step neural networks (RMSNN) and direct multi-step neural networks (DMSNN). The results show that the RMSNN approach is slightly better than the DMSNN approach for forecasts with lead time up to 3 months. The DMSNN approach gives slightly better results than the RMSNN approach when forecast lead time is over 3 months, and can give reasonable results up to 6 months ahead of forecasts. © IWA Publishing 2010.
英文关键词	Aggregated drought index; Artificial neural network; Drought; Drought forecasting; Water resources management; Yarra river catchment
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drought conditions; Drought indices; Dry periods; Multi-step; Rainfall deficiency; River catchment; Time step; Water resources management; Aggregates; Catchments; Drought; Neural networks; Weather forecasting; Water resources
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148380
作者单位	School of Engineering and Science, Victoria University, Melbourne VIC 8001, Australia; Victoria University, Melbourne VIC 8001, Australia; Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, Victoria University, Melbourne VIC 8001, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Barua S.,Perera B.J.C.,Ng A.W.M.,et al. Drought forecasting using an aggregated drought index and artificial neural network[J],2010,1(3).
APA	Barua S.,Perera B.J.C.,Ng A.W.M.,&Tran D..(2010).Drought forecasting using an aggregated drought index and artificial neural network.Journal of Water and Climate Change,1(3).
MLA	Barua S.,et al."Drought forecasting using an aggregated drought index and artificial neural network".Journal of Water and Climate Change 1.3(2010).