气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Development of water scenarios for large lakes in Europe: The case of Lake Peipsi

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2011.007
	Development of water scenarios for large lakes in Europe: The case of Lake Peipsi
	Iital A.; Voronova V.; Klõga M.
发表日期	2011
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	154
结束页码	165
卷号	2 期号:2020-02-03
英文摘要	Qualitative or quantitative description of the future by developing scenarios is a key method when taking a long-term view, e.g., up to 2050. Previously the time frames covered by the scenarios have usually been no more than 20 years. This period can be too short for achieving long-term goals when, for example, testing watershed management plans. This paper is an attempt to introduce and illustrate the potential of the Story-and-Simulation methodology and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping when drawing up qualitative and semi-quantitative scenarios and the future of Lake Peipsi, one of the largest surface water bodies in Europe. The lake is shared between Estonia and Russia and consists of three unequal parts with different natural conditions and socio-economic problems in the catchment. The scenarios developed in cooperation by the stakeholders and experts were used for assessment of the importance of the major socio-economic and political drivers on water resources and water quality in the area. The results indicate that a stakeholders' panel could provide comprehensive expertise to develop scenarios. However, a participatory scenario development is likely to produce varying results depending on the composition of the stakeholders' panel. © IWA Publishing 2011.
英文关键词	Fuzzy cognitive map; Large lake; Public participation; Socio-economic and political drivers; Story-and-simulation approach
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Fuzzy cognitive map; Large lakes; Public participation; Socio-economics; Story-and-simulation approach; Catchments; Soil conservation; Water conservation; Water management; Water quality; Lakes; fuzzy mathematics; lake water; local participation; mapping; stakeholder; surface water; water management; water quality; watershed; Estonia; Europe; Lake Peipsi; Russian Federation
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148370
作者单位	Institute of Environmental Engineering, Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Iital A.,Voronova V.,Klõga M.. Development of water scenarios for large lakes in Europe: The case of Lake Peipsi[J],2011,2(2020-02-03).
APA	Iital A.,Voronova V.,&Klõga M..(2011).Development of water scenarios for large lakes in Europe: The case of Lake Peipsi.Journal of Water and Climate Change,2(2020-02-03).
MLA	Iital A.,et al."Development of water scenarios for large lakes in Europe: The case of Lake Peipsi".Journal of Water and Climate Change 2.2020-02-03(2011).