气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Integrated modelling of a coupled water-agricultural system using system dynamics

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2013.069
	Integrated modelling of a coupled water-agricultural system using system dynamics
	Sušnik J.; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S.; Savić D.A.; Kapelan Z.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	209
结束页码	231
卷号	4 期号:3
英文摘要	An integrated System Dynamics Model for the water-stressed Rosetta region, Egypt, assessing water balance, and agricultural yield and revenue to 2050, is presented. The study uses 57 simulations to better understand impacts on water, food and economic security and their interactions, in order to highlight potential pathways towards a more sustainable future for the Rosetta region. Current water resource over-exploitation can be mitigated while still allowing for agricultural development. The utility of the system dynamics paradigm in modelling complex systems is highlighted, with the potential to extend the methodology to other studies. While most simulations hinted at continued over-exploitation, some suggest that improvements can be achieved by altering parameters such as per-capita domestic water demand and/or the cropping regime. Many policies should be considered in parallel to introduce redundancy into the policy framework. From initial results, it was hypothesised that by producing excess crops, international markets could be exploited, leading to further improvements in the water balance, yield and revenue. A model extension was built which suggested that improvements are possible, furthering local development. However, these improvements would probably manifest after years, have to be managed carefully, and would increase reliance on other countries. © IWA Publishing 2013.
英文关键词	Agricultural development; Global change; Integrated system dynamics modelling; Water security
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural development; Agricultural yields; Global change; Integrated modelling; Integrated systems; International markets; Local development; Water security; Agriculture; Integrated control; International trade; Water resources; System theory; agricultural development; global change; modeling; sustainability; water budget; water management; water use; Egypt; Rosetta Promontory
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148314
作者单位	Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sušnik J.,Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S.,Savić D.A.,et al. Integrated modelling of a coupled water-agricultural system using system dynamics[J],2013,4(3).
APA	Sušnik J.,Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia L.S.,Savić D.A.,&Kapelan Z..(2013).Integrated modelling of a coupled water-agricultural system using system dynamics.Journal of Water and Climate Change,4(3).
MLA	Sušnik J.,et al."Integrated modelling of a coupled water-agricultural system using system dynamics".Journal of Water and Climate Change 4.3(2013).