气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2013.051
	Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change
	Kyselý J.; Gaál L.; Picek J.; Schindler M.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	265
结束页码	286
卷号	4 期号:3
英文摘要	The study deals with estimates of return periods associated with the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic), which resulted in flooding with enormous material damage and loss of lives, in the present climate and under climate change scenarios. We focus on the recordbreaking 1-day and 2-day amounts at lower-elevation stations, exceeding 150 and 250 mm, respectively. The estimates of return periods are based on two methods of regional frequency analysis and they are compared with local (at-site) estimation. The regional methods consistently suggest that the August 2010 event was exceptional in view of past records, but the return levels decline substantially - by a factor of 2-4 - if parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution are allowed to vary in accordance with scenarios based on an ensemble of regional climate model projections for 2070-99. In spite of large uncertainty associated with future climate change scenarios, increased recurrence probability of such heavy precipitation events in the 21st century should be taken into account when designing and implementing flood risk prevention and mitigation measures. © IWA Publishing 2013.
英文关键词	August 2010 flood; Central Europe; Climate change scenarios; Extreme value analysis; Heavy precipitation; Regional frequency analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Central Europe; Climate change scenarios; Extreme value analysis; Heavy precipitation; Regional frequency analysis; Estimation; Floods; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; flooding; frequency analysis; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; return period; Bohemia; Czech Republic
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148311
作者单位	Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague 4, Czech Republic; Department of Applied Mathematics, Technical University, Liberec, Czech Republic; Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology, Bratislava, Slovakia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kyselý J.,Gaál L.,Picek J.,et al. Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change[J],2013,4(3).
APA	Kyselý J.,Gaál L.,Picek J.,&Schindler M..(2013).Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change.Journal of Water and Climate Change,4(3).
MLA	Kyselý J.,et al."Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change".Journal of Water and Climate Change 4.3(2013).