气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2013.072
	Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China
	Zhu Q.; Jiang H.; Peng C.; Liu J.; Fang X.; Chen H.; Liu S.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	302
结束页码	316
卷号	4 期号:3
英文摘要	The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty. © IWA Publishing 2013.
英文关键词	China; Climate change; Hydrological effects; Uncertainty; Water resource
语种	英语
scopus关键词	China; Climate change scenarios; Hydrological effects; Precipitation and runoff; Spatial and temporal variation; Spatio-temporal variation; Trends of precipitations; Uncertainty; Climate change; Climate models; Runoff; Water resources; Uncertainty analysis; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; global climate; hydrology; precipitation (climatology); runoff; spatial variation; spatiotemporal analysis; temporal variation; trend analysis; uncertainty analysis; vegetation; water resource; China
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148305
作者单位	Laboratory for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A and F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Hankou Road 22, Nanjing 210093, China; Institute of Environment Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal H3C3P8, Canada; Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT, Inc.), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Earth Resources Observation and Science(EROS) Center, 47914 252nd St, Sioux Falls, SD 57198, United States; School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Institute of Forest Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu Q.,Jiang H.,Peng C.,et al. Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China[J],2013,4(3).
APA	Zhu Q..,Jiang H..,Peng C..,Liu J..,Fang X..,...&Liu S..(2013).Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China.Journal of Water and Climate Change,4(3).
MLA	Zhu Q.,et al."Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China".Journal of Water and Climate Change 4.3(2013).