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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2013.088
	Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output
	Nam D.H.; Udo K.; Mano A.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	373
结束页码	389
卷号	4 期号:4
英文摘要	This paper presents an assessment of the changes in future floods. The ranked area-average heavy daily rainfall amounts simulated by a super-high-resolution (20 km mesh) global climate model output are corrected with consideration of the effects of the topography on heavy rainfall patterns and used as a basis to model design storm hyetographs. The rainfall data are then used as the input for a nearly calibration-free parameter rainfall-runoff model to simulate floods in the future climate (2075-2099) at the Upper Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. The results show that although the future mean annual rainfall will not be considerably different compared to the present-day climate (1979-2003), extreme rainfall is projected to increase vigorously, leading to a similar order of intensification of future floods. It is very likely that the flood peak with a 25-year recurrence will increase approximately 42% relative to the present-day climate. The occurrence of floods with a 10-year recurrence may exceed those with a 25-year recurrence in the present-day climate. The projection results also exhibit insignificant uncertainties caused by an artificial neural network-based bias correction model. Additionally, the presented bias correction model shows advantages over a simple climatology scaling method. © IWA Publishing 2013.
英文关键词	Downscaling; Flood intensification; Heavy rainfall; Super-high-resolution climate model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Annual rainfall; Central Vietnam; Daily rainfall amounts; Down-scaling; Extreme rainfall; Global climate model; Heavy rainfall; Rainfall-runoff modeling; Climate models; Computer simulation; Flood control; Neural networks; Rain; Floods; climate modeling; climatology; downscaling; flood; global climate; rainfall-runoff modeling; river basin; Viet Nam
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148296
作者单位	International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Aoba 6-6-11, Sendai 980-8579, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nam D.H.,Udo K.,Mano A.. Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output[J],2013,4(4).
APA	Nam D.H.,Udo K.,&Mano A..(2013).Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output.Journal of Water and Climate Change,4(4).
MLA	Nam D.H.,et al."Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output".Journal of Water and Climate Change 4.4(2013).