气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach; irrigation reservoir planning under climate change

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2013.073
	A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach; irrigation reservoir planning under climate change
	Green M.; Weatherhead E.K.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	13
结束页码	24
卷号	5 期号:1
英文摘要	In the UK, there is a growing interest in constructing on-farm irrigation reservoirs, however deciding the optimum reservoir capacity is not simple. There are two distinct approaches to generating the future daily weather datasets needed to calculate future irrigation need. The change factor approach perturbs the observed record using monthly change factors derived from downscaled climate models. This assumes that whilst the climate changes, the day-to-day climate variability itself is stationary. Problems may arise where the instrumental record is insufficient or particularly suspect. Alternatively, probabilistic weather generators can be used to identify options which are considered more robust to climate change uncertainty because they consider non-stationary climate variability. This paper explores the difference between using the change factor approach and a probabilistic weather generator for informing farm reservoir design at three sites in the UK. Decision outcomes obtained using the current normal practice of 80% probability of non-exceedance rule and simple economic optimisations are also compared. Decision outcomes obtained using the change factor approach and probabilistic weather generators are significantly different; whether these differences translate to real-world differences is discussed. This study also found that using the 80% probability of non-exceedance rule could potentially result in maladaptation. © IWA Publishing 2014.
英文关键词	Adaptation; Change factor; Irrigation demand; UKCP09; WaSim; Weather generator
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Irrigation; Adaptation; Change factor; UKCP09; WaSim; Weather generator; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; downscaling; irrigation; probability; reservoir; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148292
作者单位	School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Building 52, Cranfield, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Green M.,Weatherhead E.K.. A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach; irrigation reservoir planning under climate change[J],2014,5(1).
APA	Green M.,&Weatherhead E.K..(2014).A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach; irrigation reservoir planning under climate change.Journal of Water and Climate Change,5(1).
MLA	Green M.,et al."A critical comparison of using a probabilistic weather generator versus a change factor approach; irrigation reservoir planning under climate change".Journal of Water and Climate Change 5.1(2014).