气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical downscaling of general circulation model outputs to catchment scale hydroclimatic variables: Issues; challenges and possible solutions

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2014.056
	Statistical downscaling of general circulation model outputs to catchment scale hydroclimatic variables: Issues; challenges and possible solutions
	Sachindra D.A.; Huang F.; Barton A.; Perera B.J.C.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	496
结束页码	525
卷号	5 期号:4
英文摘要	The aim of this paper is to discuss the issues and challenges associated with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) outputs to hydroclimatic variables at catchment scale and also to discuss potential solutions to address these issues and challenges. Outputs of GCMs (predictors of statistical downscaling models) suffer a considerable degree of uncertainty, mainly due to the lack of theoretical robustness caused by the limited understanding of various physical processes of the atmosphere and the incomplete mathematical representation of those processes in GCMs. The presence of several future GHG emission scenarios with equal likelihood of occurrence leads to scenario uncertainty. Outputs of a downscaling study are dependent on the quality and the length of the record of field observations, as statistical downscaling models are calibrated and validated against these observations of the hydroclimatic variables (predictands of statistical downscaling models). The downscaled results vary from one statistical downscaling technique to another due to different representations of the predictor–predictand relationships. Also different techniques used in selecting the predictors for statistical downscaling models influence the model outputs. Although statistical downscaling faces these issues, it is still considered as a potential method of predicting the catchment scale hydroclimatology from GCM outputs. © IWA Publishing 2014.
英文关键词	General circulation model; Greenhouse gas emission; Statistical downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Greenhouse gases; Runoff; Degree of uncertainty; Field observations; General circulation model; Hydro climatologies; Hydroclimatic variables; Issues and challenges; Mathematical representations; Statistical downscaling; Statistics; atmospheric general circulation model; carbon emission; catchment; climatology; downscaling; greenhouse gas; numerical model; statistical analysis
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148254
作者单位	School of Engineering and Science, Victoria University, Footscray Park Campus, P.O. Box 14428, Melbourne, VIC 8001, Australia; University of Ballarat, PO Box 663, Ballarat, VIC 3353, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sachindra D.A.,Huang F.,Barton A.,et al. Statistical downscaling of general circulation model outputs to catchment scale hydroclimatic variables: Issues; challenges and possible solutions[J],2014,5(4).
APA	Sachindra D.A.,Huang F.,Barton A.,&Perera B.J.C..(2014).Statistical downscaling of general circulation model outputs to catchment scale hydroclimatic variables: Issues; challenges and possible solutions.Journal of Water and Climate Change,5(4).
MLA	Sachindra D.A.,et al."Statistical downscaling of general circulation model outputs to catchment scale hydroclimatic variables: Issues; challenges and possible solutions".Journal of Water and Climate Change 5.4(2014).