气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The application of probabilistic climate change projections: A comparison of methods of handling uncertainty applied to UK irrigation reservoir design

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2014.125
	The application of probabilistic climate change projections: A comparison of methods of handling uncertainty applied to UK irrigation reservoir design
	Green M.; Weatherhead E.K.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	652
结束页码	666
卷号	5 期号:4
英文摘要	Climate projections are increasingly being presented in terms of uncertainties and probability distributions rather than median or ‘most-likely’ values. The current national UK climate change projections, UKCP09, provide 10,000 probabilistic projections (PP) and 11 spatially coherent projections (11SCP) for three future emission scenarios. In contrast, previous iterations such as UKCIP02 provided only a single ‘most-likely’ (deterministic) projection for each. This move from deterministic to probabilistic methods of communicating climate change information, whilst increasing the wealth of the data, complicates the process of adaptation planning by communicating extra uncertainty to the public and decision-makers. This paper examines the application of probabilistic climate change projections and explores the impact of uncertainty on decision-making, using a case study of irrigation reservoir design at three sites in the UK. The implications of sub-sampling the PP using both simple random and Latin-hypercube sampling are also explored. The study found that the choice of dataset has a much larger impact on irrigation reservoir design than emission uncertainty. The study confirmed the dangers of inadequate sample size, particularly when applying decision criteria based on extreme events, and found that more advanced stratified sampling techniques did not noticeably improve the reproducibility of decision outcomes. © IWA Publishing 2014.
英文关键词	Adaptation planning; Decision-making under uncertainty; Deterministic; Probabilistic; UKCP09; WaSim
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decision making; Irrigation; Probability distributions; Decision making under uncertainty; Deterministic; Probabilistic; UKCP09; WaSim; Climate change
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148253
作者单位	Global Sustainability Institute (GSI), Faculty of Science & Technology, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, United Kingdom; School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Building 52, Cranfield, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Green M.,Weatherhead E.K.. The application of probabilistic climate change projections: A comparison of methods of handling uncertainty applied to UK irrigation reservoir design[J],2014,5(4).
APA	Green M.,&Weatherhead E.K..(2014).The application of probabilistic climate change projections: A comparison of methods of handling uncertainty applied to UK irrigation reservoir design.Journal of Water and Climate Change,5(4).
MLA	Green M.,et al."The application of probabilistic climate change projections: A comparison of methods of handling uncertainty applied to UK irrigation reservoir design".Journal of Water and Climate Change 5.4(2014).