气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2015.072
	Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive
	Sonali P.; Nagesh Kumar D.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	83
结束页码	102
卷号	7 期号:1
英文摘要	This study analyzes the change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) during the period 1950–2005 (i.e., second half of the 20th century). In-depth analyses have been carried out for all over India as well as for five temperature homogenous regions of India separately. First, the temporal variations of annual and seasonal Tmax and Tmin are analyzed, employing the trend free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall approach. Secondly, it is assessed whether the observations contain significant signals above the natural internal variability determined from a long ‘piControl’ experiment, using Monte Carlo simulation. Thirdly, fingerprint based formal detection and attribution analysis is used to determine the signal strengths of observed and model simulations with respect to different considered experiments. Finally, these signal strengths are compared to attribute the observed changes in Tmax and Tmin to different factors. All the model simulated datasets are retrieved from the CMIP5 archive. It is noticed that the emergence of observed trends is more pronounced in Tmincompared to Tmax. Although observed changes are not solely associated with one specific causative factor, most of the changes in Tmin lie above the bounds of natural internal climate variability. © IWA Publishing 2016.
英文关键词	Climate change signal; CMIP5 dataset; Formal detection-attribution; Natural internal climate variability; Seasonal temperature; Trend detection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Climatology; Intelligent systems; Monte Carlo methods; Pattern recognition; Signal detection; CMIP5 dataset; Formal detection-attribution; Internal climate variability; Seasonal temperature; Trend detection; Climate models; air temperature; climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; data set; Monte Carlo analysis; temporal variation; trend analysis; India
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148166
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India; Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India; Centre for Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sonali P.,Nagesh Kumar D.. Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive[J],2016,7(1).
APA	Sonali P.,&Nagesh Kumar D..(2016).Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive.Journal of Water and Climate Change,7(1).
MLA	Sonali P.,et al."Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive".Journal of Water and Climate Change 7.1(2016).