气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2015.136
	The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland
	Afzal M.; Gagnon A.S.; Mansell M.G.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	321
结束页码	339
卷号	7 期号:2
英文摘要	This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff, and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water supply reliability and the variability of rainfall was then investigated using different measures of variability. A strong correlation was found between reservoir reliability and measures representing the distribution of rainfall between the winter and summer seasons, as well as the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of annual precipitation, quantifying the variability of rainfall between years. In contrast, mainly the intra-annual CUSUM range and the variance of monthly precipitation influenced the reliability of river-intake schemes. The presence of periodic patterns in rainfall anomalies was found to be more prevalent in West Scotland, where reservoir reliability is on average lower than in the East. In addition, a sensitivity analysis revealed the small influence of evapotranspiration on reservoir reliability in comparison to rainfall variability. This study reveals the measures of variability most affecting the reliability of surface water supplies in Scotland, and could therefore help with their management in the context of future climate change. © IWA Publishing 2016.
英文关键词	Climate variability; Hydrological modelling; Periodicity; Reliability; Scotland; Surface water supply
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate change; Rain; Reliability; Reliability analysis; Reservoirs (water); Runoff; Sensitivity analysis; Surface waters; Water supply; Water supply systems; Annual precipitation; Climate variability; Hydrological modelling; Periodicity; Rainfall variability; Rainfall-runoff modeling; Reservoir reliability; Scotland; Precipitation (meteorology); hydrological modeling; numerical model; periodicity; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; rainfall; reliability analysis; water supply; Scotland; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148157
作者单位	School of Engineering and Computing, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, PA1 2BE, United Kingdom; School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science (SAGES), The University of Reading, Whiteknights PO Box 227, Reading, RG6 6AB, United Kingdom; Centre for Environmental Research, School of Science and Sport, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, PA1 2BE, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Afzal M.,Gagnon A.S.,Mansell M.G.. The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland[J],2016,7(2).
APA	Afzal M.,Gagnon A.S.,&Mansell M.G..(2016).The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland.Journal of Water and Climate Change,7(2).
MLA	Afzal M.,et al."The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland".Journal of Water and Climate Change 7.2(2016).