气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: Applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2016.045
	Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: Applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods
	Danesh A.S.; Ahadi M.S.; Fahmi H.; Nokhandan M.H.; Eshraghi H.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	551
结束页码	577
卷号	7 期号:3
英文摘要	As a result of inappropriate management and rising levels of societal demand, in arid and semi-arid regions water resources are becoming increasingly stressed. Therefore, well-established insight into the effects of climate change on water resource components can be considered to be an essential strategy to reduce these effects. In this paper, Iran’s climate change and variability, and the impact of climate change on water resources, were studied. Climate change was assessed by means of two Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) weather generators and all outputs from the available general circulation models in the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change-SCENario GENerator (MAGICC-SCENGEN) software, in combination with different emission scenarios at the regional scale, while the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model has been used for projections at the local scale. A hydrological model, the Runoff Assessment Model (RAM), was first utilized to simulate water resources for Iran. Then, using the MAGICC-SCENGEN model and the downscaled results as input for the RAM model, a prediction was made for changes in 30 basins and runoffs. Modeling results indicate temperature and precipitation changes in the range of ±6 °C and ±60%, respectively. Temperature rise increases evaporation and decreases runoff, but has been found to cause an increased rate of runoff in winter and a decrease in spring. © IWA Publishing 2016.
英文关键词	Climate change; LARS-WG; MAGICC-SCENGEN; PRECIS; RAM; Water resources
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Greenhouse gases; Random access storage; Runoff; Water resources; Climate change impact assessments; Climate change scenarios; General circulation model; Hydrological modeling; LARS-WG; MAGICC-SCENGEN; PRECIS; Statistical downscaling; Climate change; assessment method; climate change; climate effect; downscaling; runoff; statistical analysis; temperature effect; water resource; Iran
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148147
作者单位	Department of Environment, National Climate Change Office, No. 161, International Projects BLDG, Pardisan ECO-PARK, Hakim Expressway, P.O. Box 14155-7383, Tehran, Iran; University of Tehran, First Floor, No. 28, Fatemi Alley, North Kargar Avenue, Tehran, Iran; Climatological Research Institute, National Centre of Climatology Unit 4, No. 13, Faramarz 12 Alley, Faramarz Abbasi Blvd, Mashhad, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Danesh A.S.,Ahadi M.S.,Fahmi H.,et al. Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: Applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods[J],2016,7(3).
APA	Danesh A.S.,Ahadi M.S.,Fahmi H.,Nokhandan M.H.,&Eshraghi H..(2016).Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: Applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods.Journal of Water and Climate Change,7(3).
MLA	Danesh A.S.,et al."Climate change impact assessment on water resources in Iran: Applying dynamic and statistical downscaling methods".Journal of Water and Climate Change 7.3(2016).