气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2017.107
	Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model
	Tavakolifar H.; Shahghasemi E.; Nazif S.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	441
结束页码	455
卷号	8 期号:3
英文摘要	Climate change has impacted all phenomena in the hydrologic cycle, especially extreme events. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to investigate climate change impacts but because of their low resolution, downscaling methods are developed to provide data with high enough resolution for regional studies from GCM outputs. The performance of rainfall downscaling methods is commonly acceptable in preserving average characteristics, but they do not preserve the extreme event characteristics especially rainfall amount and distribution. In this study, a novel downscaling method called synoptic statistical downscaling model is proposed for daily precipitation downscaling with an emphasis on extreme event characteristics preservation. The proposed model is applied to a region located in central Iran. The results show that the developed model can downscale all percentiles of precipitation events with an acceptable performance and there is no assumption about the similarity of future rainfall data with the historical observations. The outputs of CCSM4 GCM for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to investigate the climate change impacts in the study region. The results show 40% and 30% increase in the number of extreme rainfall events under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. © IWA Publishing 2017.
英文关键词	Circulation type; Downscaling; Extreme events; Self-organizing maps (SOM); Synoptic statistical downscaling model; Synoptic weather typing
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Conformal mapping; Precipitation (meteorology); Rain; Self organizing maps; Acceptable performance; Climate change impact; Down-scaling; Extreme events; General circulation model; Historical observation; Statistical downscaling; Synoptic weather typing; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; downscaling; extreme event; hydrological response; numerical model; rainfall; self organization; synoptic meteorology; weather forecasting; Iran
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148083
作者单位	School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tavakolifar H.,Shahghasemi E.,Nazif S.. Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model[J],2017,8(3).
APA	Tavakolifar H.,Shahghasemi E.,&Nazif S..(2017).Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model.Journal of Water and Climate Change,8(3).
MLA	Tavakolifar H.,et al."Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model".Journal of Water and Climate Change 8.3(2017).