气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2017.009
	Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany
	Paparrizos S.; Schindler D.; Potouridis S.; Matzarakis A.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	490
结束页码	499
卷号	9 期号:3
英文摘要	Assessment of future precipitation responses is crucial for various sectors which include tourism, agriculture, and energy yield. The study is focused on South Germany and aims to analyse the future spatio-temporal responses of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data were derived and analysed from a number of regional climate models (RCMs), while climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, under the A1B and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Spatial interpolation and distribution of precipitation was performed using the ordinary Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that precipitation in South Germany is expected to increase for both applied scenarios by 10–12%. Seasonal analysis indicated that with the exception of the summer season (JJA), where precipitation by the end of the century is expected to face an 8–16% reduction, in general it will show an increase in the upcoming years. Spatial analysis indicated that areas located on the highlands will face significant reductions that will reach up to 20%. Conversely, areas located in the lowlands will have increased precipitation. The increase in precipitation amount can have a direct positive impact on the sustainable development of tourism, agriculture, energy yield and water resources in South Germany. © IWA Publishing 2018.
英文关键词	Climate change; IPCC emission scenarios; Precipitation; South Germany; Spatial interpolation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climate models; Interpolation; Precipitation (chemical); Water resources; Emission scenario; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Ordinary kriging methods; Regional climate models; Seasonal precipitations; South Germany; Spatial interpolation; Spatiotemporal analysis; Climate change; ArcGIS; areal interpolation; climate effect; future prospect; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; kriging; lowland environment; precipitation assessment; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; temporal variation; weather forecasting; Germany
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148035
作者单位	Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwigs University of Freiburg, Freiburg, D-79085, Germany; LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-USVQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FR-91191, France; Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Pantazidou str. 192, Orestiada, GR-68200, Greece; Research Center Human-Biometeorology, German Meteorological Service, Stefan-Meier-Str. 4, Freiburg, D-79104, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Paparrizos S.,Schindler D.,Potouridis S.,et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany[J],2018,9(3).
APA	Paparrizos S.,Schindler D.,Potouridis S.,&Matzarakis A..(2018).Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany.Journal of Water and Climate Change,9(3).
MLA	Paparrizos S.,et al."Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany".Journal of Water and Climate Change 9.3(2018).