气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling of extreme risk in river water quality under climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2018.024
	Modeling of extreme risk in river water quality under climate change
	Rehana S.; Dhanya C.T.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	512
结束页码	524
卷号	9 期号:3
英文摘要	A river water quality management model under average climatic conditions may not be able to account for the extreme risk of low water quality which is more prominent under an increase in river water temperature and altered river flows. A modeling framework is developed to assess the risk of river low water quality extremes by integrating a statistical downscaling model based on Canonical Correlation Analysis, risk quantification model based on Frank Archimedean Copula function and multiple logistic regression model integrated with a river water quality simulation model, QUAL2 K. The results reveal that the combination of predicted decrease in low flows of approximately 57% and increase in maximum river water temperatures of approximately 1.2∘C has shown an increase of about 46% in risk of low water quality conditions for the future scenarios along Tunga-Bhadra River, India. The extreme risk of low water quality is observed to increase by 50.6% for the period 2020– 2040 when compared with the current extreme conditions of 4.5% and average risk conditions of about 3% for the period 1988–2005. The study captured the occurrence of extremes of low water quality with evidence of a strong link between climate and water quality impairment events. © IWA Publishing 2018.
英文关键词	Canonical Correlation Analysis; Copula; Multiple logistic regression model; QUAL2 K; Statistical downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Correlation methods; Quality management; Regression analysis; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Rivers; Temperature; Water conservation; Water management; Water quality; Canonical correlation analysis; Climatic conditions; Copula; Multiple logistic regression; Risk quantification; River water quality; Statistical downscaling; Water quality impairment; Quality control; canonical analysis; climate change; downscaling; extreme event; geostatistics; numerical model; regression analysis; risk assessment; river flow; river water; water quality; Tunga
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148027
作者单位	Laboratory for Spatial Informatics, International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, 500032, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, 110 016, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rehana S.,Dhanya C.T.. Modeling of extreme risk in river water quality under climate change[J],2018,9(3).
APA	Rehana S.,&Dhanya C.T..(2018).Modeling of extreme risk in river water quality under climate change.Journal of Water and Climate Change,9(3).
MLA	Rehana S.,et al."Modeling of extreme risk in river water quality under climate change".Journal of Water and Climate Change 9.3(2018).