气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2019.180
	Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments
	Al-Safi H.I.J.; Kazemi H.; Ranjan Sarukkalige P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	341
结束页码	366
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	The application of two distinctively different hydrologic models, (conceptual-HBV) and (distributed-BTOPMC), was compared to simulate the future runoff across three unregulated catchments of the Australian Hydrologic Reference Stations (HRSs), namely Harvey catchment in WA, and Beardy and Goulburn catchments in NSW. These catchments have experienced significant runoff reduction during the last decades due to climate change and human activities. The Budyko-elasticity method was employed to assign the influences of human activities and climate change on runoff variations. After estimating the contribution of climate change in runoff reduction from the past runoff regime, the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of eight global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate the future daily runoff at the three HRSs for the mid-(2046–2065) and late-(2080–2099) 21st-century. Results show that the conceptual model performs better than the distributed model in capturing the observed streamflow across the three contributing catchments. The performance of the models was relatively compatible in the overall direction of future streamflow change, regardless of the magnitude, and incompatible regarding the change in the direction of high and low flows for both future climate scenarios. Both models predicted a decline in wet and dry season’s streamflow across the three catchments. © IWA Publishing 2020.
英文关键词	Budyko equation; Climate change; Conceptual modelling; Distributed modelling; Human activities; Hydrologic reference stations
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate models; Runoff; Stream flow; Comparative studies; Distributed modeling; Future climate scenarios; Global climate model; Goulburn catchments; Hydrologic modelling; Multi-model ensemble; Wet and dry seasons; Climate change; catchment; climate change; climate effect; comparative study; conceptual framework; human activity; hydrological modeling; runoff; Australia; Goulburn Basin; Harvey Basin; New South Wales; Victoria [Australia]; Western Australia; Hepatitis B virus
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147929
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, Curtin University, Perth, Australia; Department of Irrigation and Drainage Techniques, Technical Institute of Shatrah, Southern Technical UniversityDhi Qar, Iraq
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Al-Safi H.I.J.,Kazemi H.,Ranjan Sarukkalige P.. Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments[J],2020,11(2).
APA	Al-Safi H.I.J.,Kazemi H.,&Ranjan Sarukkalige P..(2020).Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments.Journal of Water and Climate Change,11(2).
MLA	Al-Safi H.I.J.,et al."Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments".Journal of Water and Climate Change 11.2(2020).