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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2018.256
	Assessment of the climate change risks for inflow into sagami dam reservoir using a hydrological model
	Momiyama S.; Sagehashi M.; Akiba M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	367
结束页码	379
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	Adverse effects of future climate change on water supply systems are of concern. High turbidity caused by abrupt flood, and drought caused by continuous dry days are the major risks. To assess such risks, a comprehensive method to simulate hydrology with high spatiotemporal resolution should be developed. In this study, a series of methods from parameter estimation to future simulation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was demonstrated for Sagami Dam reservoir, which is a typical water supply reservoir in Japan. A proposed parameter calibration method by optimizing percent bias followed by optimizing Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency gave good performance of model prediction of the daily average reservoir inflow in the past. Using this model, the changes in inflow under expected climate change were simulated. Three predicted daily climates by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) under three representative concentration pathways, i.e., RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, in 2081–2100 were used for the simulation, whereas observed daily climate during 1981–2000 was used as the past reference. The risks were discussed by considering their seasonality, indicating increases in flood and drought in June and July, and in February and April, respectively. © IWA Publishing 2020.
英文关键词	Climate change; Flood and drought risk; Sagami Dam reservoir; SWAT model; Water resource management
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Drought; Floods; Reservoirs (water); Risk assessment; Water supply; Water supply systems; Climate change risks; Comprehensive method; Hydrological modeling; Interdisciplinary research; Parameter calibration; Soil and water assessment tool; Spatio-temporal resolution; Water supply reservoirs; Climate change; climate change; dam; hydrological modeling; risk assessment; soil and water assessment tool; spatiotemporal analysis; turbidity; water supply; Honshu; Japan; Sagami River
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147925
作者单位	National Institute of Public Health, Saitama, Japan; Yokohama Waterworks Bureau, Kanagawa, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Momiyama S.,Sagehashi M.,Akiba M.. Assessment of the climate change risks for inflow into sagami dam reservoir using a hydrological model[J],2020,11(2).
APA	Momiyama S.,Sagehashi M.,&Akiba M..(2020).Assessment of the climate change risks for inflow into sagami dam reservoir using a hydrological model.Journal of Water and Climate Change,11(2).
MLA	Momiyama S.,et al."Assessment of the climate change risks for inflow into sagami dam reservoir using a hydrological model".Journal of Water and Climate Change 11.2(2020).