气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions; using different time series models and rdi index

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2019.009
	Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions; using different time series models and rdi index
	Moghimi M.M.; Zarei A.R.; Mahmoudi M.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	633
结束页码	654
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Confronting drought and reducing its impacts requires modeling and forecasting of this phenomenon. In this research, the ability of different time series models (the ARIMA models with different structures) were evaluated to model and predict seasonal drought based on the RDI drought index in the south of Iran. For this purpose, the climatic data of 16 synoptic stations from 1980 to 2010 were used. Evaluation of time series models was based on trial and error. Results showed drought classes varied between ‘very wet’ to ‘severely dry’. The more occurrence frequency of ‘severely dry’ class compared to other drought classes represent the necessity of drought assessment and the importance of managing the effects of this phenomenon in the study area. Results showed that the highest severity of drought occurred at Abadeh, Shiraz, Fasa, Sirjan, Kerman, Shahre Babak and Saravan stations. According to selecting the best model fitted to the computed three-month RDI time series, results indicated that the MA model based on the Innovations method resulted in maximum cases with the best performance (37.5% of cases). The AR model based on the Yule–Walker method resulted in minimum cases with the best performance (6.3% of cases) in seasonal drought forecasting. © IWA Publishing 2020.
英文关键词	Drought modelling; Forecasting; Reconnaissance drought index; Time series models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Autoregressive moving average model; Time series; Weather forecasting; Climatic data; Different structure; Drought indices; Modeling and forecasting; Seasonal droughts; Synoptic station; Time series models; Trial and error; Drought; arid region; drought; numerical model; seasonal variation; synoptic meteorology; time series analysis; weather forecasting; Iran
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147924
作者单位	Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran; Department of Range and Watershed Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran; Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Moghimi M.M.,Zarei A.R.,Mahmoudi M.R.. Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions; using different time series models and rdi index[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Moghimi M.M.,Zarei A.R.,&Mahmoudi M.R..(2020).Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions; using different time series models and rdi index.Journal of Water and Climate Change,11(3).
MLA	Moghimi M.M.,et al."Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions; using different time series models and rdi index".Journal of Water and Climate Change 11.3(2020).