气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought forecasting: A review of modelling approaches 2007

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2019.236
	Drought forecasting: A review of modelling approaches 2007–2017
	Fung K.F.; Huang Y.F.; Koo C.H.; Soh Y.W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	771
结束页码	799
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Droughts are prolonged precipitation-deficient periods, resulting in inadequate water availability and adverse repercussions to crops, animals and humans. Drought forecasting is vital to water resources planning and management in minimizing the negative consequences. Many models have been developed for this purpose and, indeed, it would be a long process for researchers to select the best suited model for their research. A timely, thorough and informative overview of the models’ concepts and historical applications would be helpful in preventing researchers from overlooking the potential selection of models and saving them considerable amounts of time on the problem. Thus, this paper aims to review drought forecasting approaches including their input requirements and performance measures, for 2007–2017. The models are categorized according to their respective mechanism: regression analysis, stochastic, probabilistic, artificial intelligence based, hybrids and dynamic modelling. Details of the selected papers, including modelling approaches, authors, year of publication, methods, input variables, evaluation criteria, time scale and type of drought are tabulated for ease of reference. The basic concepts of each approach with key parameters are explained, along with the historical applications, benefits and limitations of the models. Finally, future outlooks and potential modelling techniques are furnished for continuing drought research. © IWA Publishing 2020.
英文关键词	Artificial intelligence; Dynamic modelling; Hybrid; Probability; Regression analysis; Time series analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Artificial intelligence; Regression analysis; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Water resources; Weather forecasting; Basic concepts; Evaluation criteria; Input variables; Modelling techniques; Performance measure; Potential selection; Water availability; Water resources planning and managements; Drought; climate modeling; climate prediction; drought; performance assessment; research work; weather forecasting; Animalia
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147906
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, Lee Kong Chian, Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Jalan Bandar Sg. Long, Bandar Sg. Long, Kajang, Selangor 43000, Malaysia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fung K.F.,Huang Y.F.,Koo C.H.,等. Drought forecasting: A review of modelling approaches 2007–2017[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Fung K.F.,Huang Y.F.,Koo C.H.,&Soh Y.W..(2020).Drought forecasting: A review of modelling approaches 2007–2017.Journal of Water and Climate Change,11(3).
MLA	Fung K.F.,et al."Drought forecasting: A review of modelling approaches 2007–2017".Journal of Water and Climate Change 11.3(2020).