气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186
	Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty
	Moallemi E.A.; Kwakkel J.; de Haan F.J.; Bryan B.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	65
英文摘要	Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty explicitly through systematically exploring the implications of modeling assumptions, aiming to enhance the robustness of inferences from models. Despite a variety of applications, the extent and the way(s) that exploratory modeling can deal with the challenges that arise from the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making with stakeholders has not yet been systematically framed. We address this gap in two ways. First, we present a taxonomy of the ways that exploratory modeling can be used to inform robust inferences in coupled human-natural systems by mapping the technical capabilities of this approach in relation to the diversity of past applications. This subsequently guides an investigation of the practical benefits and challenges of these capabilities in handling uncertainty and complexity. Second, we discuss different ways for integrating genuine stakeholder engagement into exploratory modeling through transdisciplinary research. Finally we outline some priorities for future expansion of this research area. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Adaptation; Decision-making; Participatory; Robustness; Stakeholder; Sustainability; Uncertainty
语种	英语
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147580
作者单位	Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Australia; Designing Systems for Informed Resilience Engineering (DeSIRE), The 4TU Centre for Resilience Engineering (4TU.RE), Netherlands; Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Moallemi E.A.,Kwakkel J.,de Haan F.J.,et al. Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty[J],2020,65.
APA	Moallemi E.A.,Kwakkel J.,de Haan F.J.,&Bryan B.A..(2020).Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty.Global Environmental Change,65.
MLA	Moallemi E.A.,et al."Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty".Global Environmental Change 65(2020).