气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2
	The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts
	Harmsen M.; van Vuuren D.P.; Bodirsky B.L.; Chateau J.; Durand-Lasserve O.; Drouet L.; Fricko O.; Fujimori S.; Gernaat D.E.H.J.; Hanaoka T.; Hilaire J.; Keramidas K.; Luderer G.; Moura M.C.P.; Sano F.; Smith S.J.; Wada K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2 reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4 (50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4 emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cost effectiveness; Emission control; Fossil fuels; Mammals; Methane; Climate impacts; Cost effective; Emission factors; Emission reduction strategy; Enteric fermentation; Future climate; Integrated assessment models; Reduction potential; Climate models
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147563
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, 2594 AV, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, Utrecht, 3584 CB, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), POBox 60 12 03, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; OECD Environment Directorate, 2 rue André Pascal, Paris, 75116, France; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergogne 34, Milan, 20144, Italy; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz-1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Katsura-Campus, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, C1–3-361, Japan; Center for Social&Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Torgauerstrasse 12, Berlin, 10829, G...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harmsen M.,van Vuuren D.P.,Bodirsky B.L.,et al. The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts[J],2019.
APA	Harmsen M..,van Vuuren D.P..,Bodirsky B.L..,Chateau J..,Durand-Lasserve O..,...&Wada K..(2019).The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts.Climatic Change.
MLA	Harmsen M.,et al."The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts".Climatic Change (2019).