气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02436-3
	Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation
	Harmsen M.; Fricko O.; Hilaire J.; van Vuuren D.P.; Drouet L.; Durand-Lasserve O.; Fujimori S.; Keramidas K.; Klimont Z.; Luderer G.; Aleluia Reis L.; Riahi K.; Sano F.; Smith S.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cost effectiveness; Greenhouse gases; Climate agreement; Energy systems; Global-mean temperature; Greenhouse gas reductions; Hydrofluorocarbons; Integrated assessment models; Maximum temperature; State of the art; Organic carbon
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147561
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, 2594 AV, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, Utrecht, 3584 CS, Netherlands; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz-1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, POBox 60 12 03, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Torgauerstrasse 12, Berlin, 10829, Germany; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Via Bergognone 34, Milan, 20144, Italy; OECD Environment Directorate, 2 rue André Pascal, Paris, 75116, France; Department Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, 361, C1-3, Kyoto University Katsura Campus, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 615-8540, Japan; Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harmsen M.,Fricko O.,Hilaire J.,等. Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation[J],2019.
APA	Harmsen M..,Fricko O..,Hilaire J..,van Vuuren D.P..,Drouet L..,...&Smith S.J..(2019).Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation.Climatic Change.
MLA	Harmsen M.,et al."Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation".Climatic Change (2019).