气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2355-3
	How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation
	Raso L.; Kwakkel J.; Timmermans J.; Panthou G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	267
结束页码	283
卷号	153 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by including a monitoring system composed of signposts and triggers in the design of the plan. A well-designed monitoring system is indispensable for the effective implementation of adaptive policies. Despite the importance of monitoring for adaptive policies, the present literature has not considered criteria enabling the a-priori evaluation of the efficacy of signposts. In this paper, we introduce criteria for the evaluation of individual signposts and the monitoring system as a whole. These criteria are relevance, observability, completeness, and parsimony. These criteria are intended to enhance the capacity to detect the need for adaptation in the presence of noisy and ambiguous observations of the real system. The criteria are identified from an analysis of the information chain, from system observations to policy success, focusing on how data becomes information. We illustrate how models, in particular, the combined use of stochastic and exploratory modelling can be used to assess individual signposts, and the whole monitoring system according to these criteria. This analysis provides significant insight into critical factors that may hinder learning from data. The proposed criteria are demonstrated using a hypothetical case, in which a monitoring system for a flood protection policy in the Niger River is designed and tested. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Adaptive policies; Climate change; Deep uncertainty; Dynamic adaptive policy pathways; Evidence based; Extremes; Flood management; Information; Monitoring; Monitoring; Niger River; Signposts
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Flood control; Floods; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Adaptive policy; Deep uncertainties; Dynamic-adaptive; Evidence-based; Extremes; Flood management; Information; Niger; Signposts; Monitoring; adaptive management; climate change; climate modeling; environmental monitoring; environmental policy; extreme event; flood control; implementation process; information management; monitoring system; uncertainty analysis; Niger River
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147528
作者单位	Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, Delft, 2628 BX, Netherlands; Université Grenoble-Alpes, 38 058 Grenoble Cedex 9, Grenoble, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Raso L.,Kwakkel J.,Timmermans J.,et al. How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation[J],2019,153(2020-01-02).
APA	Raso L.,Kwakkel J.,Timmermans J.,&Panthou G..(2019).How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation.Climatic Change,153(2020-01-02).
MLA	Raso L.,et al."How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation".Climatic Change 153.2020-01-02(2019).