气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rangeland vulnerability to state transition under global climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-02365-7
	Rangeland vulnerability to state transition under global climate change
	Wonkka C.L.; Twidwell D.; Allred B.W.; Bielski C.H.; Donovan V.M.; Roberts C.P.; Fuhlendorf S.D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	59
结束页码	78
卷号	153 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The rapid pace of global climate change necessitates tools for prioritizing limited climate-adaptation resources in the face of imperfect knowledge regarding plant community responses to changing climate. In addition, global climate change often leads to novel shifts in plant communities which are difficult to anticipate with detailed models based on current system dynamics, which are often greatly altered under novel climates. In order to identify nonforested plant communities that are highly susceptible to state transitions under global climate change, we examined differences between the historical climate envelopes and end-of-century projections. We developed a vulnerability index based on the realized climate envelope for a given plant community relative to future climate exposure under two different climate-forcing models. To provide an approach to prioritizing climate-change adaptation resources at smaller scales, we used scenario analysis to determine the probability of falling outside of the historical climate envelope for each vegetation type present in a given management unit. The large-scale index consistently identified several areas as highly vulnerable to ecosystem state transition under future global climate change. South and north central Texas, the northwestern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain regions, eastern Kansas, and large portions of central and western Texas appear most vulnerable under both climate models. Scenarios identified thresholds of potential state shift for every vegetation type in the small-scale management areas investigated. Our study identifies a simple method for determining the relative vulnerability of nonforested plant communities to state shifts, providing a robust approach for prioritizing limited climate-adaptation resources at multiple scales. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Alternative states; Rangelands; Scenario analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Vegetation; Alternative state; Climate change adaptation; Global climate changes; Plant communities; Rangelands; Scenario analysis; State transitions; Vulnerability index; Climate change; adaptive management; climate change; climate modeling; global climate; mountain region; plant community; rangeland; scenario analysis; vegetation type; vulnerability; Great Plains; Kansas; Rocky Mountains; Texas; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147514
作者单位	Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, United States; College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, United States; Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wonkka C.L.,Twidwell D.,Allred B.W.,et al. Rangeland vulnerability to state transition under global climate change[J],2019,153(2020-01-02).
APA	Wonkka C.L..,Twidwell D..,Allred B.W..,Bielski C.H..,Donovan V.M..,...&Fuhlendorf S.D..(2019).Rangeland vulnerability to state transition under global climate change.Climatic Change,153(2020-01-02).
MLA	Wonkka C.L.,et al."Rangeland vulnerability to state transition under global climate change".Climatic Change 153.2020-01-02(2019).