气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2336-6
	Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran
	Ashraf S.; AghaKouchak A.; Nazemi A.; Mirchi A.; Sadegh M.; Moftakhari H.R.; Hassanzadeh E.; Miao C.-Y.; Madani K.; Mousavi Baygi M.; Anjileli H.; Arab D.R.; Norouzi H.; Mazdiyasni O.; Azarderakhsh M.; Alborzi A.; Tourian M.J.; Mehran A.; Farahmand A.; Mallakpour I.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	379
结束页码	391
卷号	152 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from ~ − 8.3 mm/year in 2010–2039 to ~ − 61.6 mm/year in 2070–2099 compared with an observed rate of 4 mm/year in 1976–2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran’s heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia. © 2018, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Digital storage; Economics; Population statistics; Precipitation (meteorology); Water management; Water supply; Agricultural activities; Climatic changes; Ground-based data; Population growth; Precipitation variability; Sustainable lands; Water availability; Water withdrawal; Surface waters; climate change; climate modeling; human activity; nature-society relations; population growth; precipitation (climatology); socioeconomic conditions; surface water; water availability; water storage; water stress; water use efficiency; Iran; Lake Urmia
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147512
作者单位	University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran; Concordia University, Montreal, Canada; Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, United States; Boise State University, Boise, ID, United States; University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States; Polytechnique Montreal, Montreal, Canada; Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Imperial College London, Kensington, London, United Kingdom; Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Rahbord Danesh Pooya Institute, Tehran, Iran; City University of New York, New York, NY, United States; Fairleigh Dickinson University, Teaneck, NJ, United States; University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany; University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ashraf S.,AghaKouchak A.,Nazemi A.,et al. Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran[J],2019,152(2020-03-04).
APA	Ashraf S..,AghaKouchak A..,Nazemi A..,Mirchi A..,Sadegh M..,...&Mallakpour I..(2019).Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran.Climatic Change,152(2020-03-04).
MLA	Ashraf S.,et al."Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran".Climatic Change 152.2020-03-04(2019).