气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9
	The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery
	Giannini A.; Kaplan A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	449
结束页码	466
卷号	152 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	We exploit the multi-model ensemble produced by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to synthesize current understanding of external forcing of Sahel rainfall change, past and future, through the lens of oceanic influence. The CMIP5 multi-model mean simulates the twentieth century evolution of Sahel rainfall, including the mid-century decline toward the driest years in the early 1980s and the partial recovery since. We exploit a physical argument linking anthropogenic emissions to the change in the temperature of the sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean relative to the global tropical oceans to demonstrate indirect attribution of late twentieth century Sahel drought to the unique combination of aerosols and greenhouse gases that characterized the post-World War II period. The subsequent reduction in aerosol emissions around the North Atlantic that resulted from environmental legislation to curb acid rain, occurring as global tropical warming continued unabated, is consistent with the current partial recovery and with projections of future wetting. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) applied to the above-mentioned sea surface temperature (SST) indices provides a succinct description of oceanic influence on Sahel rainfall and reveals the near-orthogonality in the influence of emissions between twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the independent effects of aerosols and greenhouse gases project on the difference of SST indices and explain past variation, while the dominance of greenhouse gases projects on their sum and explains future projection. This result challenges the assumption that because anthropogenic warming had a hand in past Sahel drought, continued warming will result in further drying. In fact, the twenty-first century dominance of greenhouse gases, unchallenged by aerosols, results in projections consistent with warming-induced strengthening of the monsoon, a response that has gained in coherence in CMIP5 compared to prior multi-model exercises. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Acid rain; Aerosols; Climate models; Drought; Greenhouse gases; Military operations; Recovery; Singular value decomposition; Surface waters; Tropics; Anthropogenic emissions; Anthropogenic warming; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Environmental legislations; Multi-model ensemble; North Atlantic Ocean; Sea surface temperature (SST); Subsequent reduction; Oceanography; acid rain; aerosol; anthropogenic effect; CMIP; drought stress; environmental legislation; greenhouse gas; precipitation intensity; sea surface temperature; singular value decomposition; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147511
作者单位	International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Giannini A.,Kaplan A.. The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery[J],2019,152(2020-03-04).
APA	Giannini A.,&Kaplan A..(2019).The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery.Climatic Change,152(2020-03-04).
MLA	Giannini A.,et al."The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery".Climatic Change 152.2020-03-04(2019).