气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno; Czech Republic

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5
	Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno; Czech Republic
	Geletič J.; Lehnert M.; Dobrovolný P.; Žuvela-Aloise M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	487
结束页码	502
卷号	152 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Tropics; Urban growth; Czech Republic; European cities; Future climate; Global climate changes; Living conditions; Spatial modelling; Summer climate; Urban environments; Climate change; climate change; climate conditions; database; forest ecosystem; future prospect; global climate; spatial analysis; summer; tropical region; urban atmosphere; Brno; Czech Republic; Jihomoravsky
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147506
作者单位	Department of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Pod Vodárenskou věží 271/2, Prague 8, 182 07, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986/4a, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Palacký University, Olomouc, 17. Listopadu 12, Olomouc, 771 46, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, Brno, 61137, Czech Republic; Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Hohe Warte 38, Vienna, 1190, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geletič J.,Lehnert M.,Dobrovolný P.,et al. Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno; Czech Republic[J],2019,152(2020-03-04).
APA	Geletič J.,Lehnert M.,Dobrovolný P.,&Žuvela-Aloise M..(2019).Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno; Czech Republic.Climatic Change,152(2020-03-04).
MLA	Geletič J.,et al."Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno; Czech Republic".Climatic Change 152.2020-03-04(2019).