气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2359-z
	Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?
	van der Pol T.D.; Hinkel J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	393
结束页码	411
卷号	152 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	For the long-term management of coastal flood risks, investment and policy strategies need to be developed in light of the full range of uncertainties associated with mean sea-level rise (SLR). This, however, remains a challenge due to deep uncertainties involved in SLR assessments, many ways of representing uncertainties and a lack of common terminology for referring to these. To contribute to addressing these limitations, this paper first develops a typology of representations of SLR uncertainty by categorising these at three levels: (i) SLR scenarios versus SLR predictions, (ii) the type of variable that is used to represent SLR uncertainty, and (iii) partial versus complete uncertainty representations. Next, it is analysed how mean SLR uncertainty is represented and how representations are converted within the following three strands of literature: SLR assessments, impact assessments and decision analyses. We find that SLR assessments mostly produce partial or complete precise probabilistic scenarios. The likely ranges in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are a noteworthy example of partial imprecise probabilistic scenarios. SLR impact assessments and decision analyses mostly use deterministic scenarios. In conversions of uncertainty representations, a range of arbitrary assumptions are made, for example on functional forms of probability distributions and relevant confidence levels. The loss of quality and the loss of information can be reduced by disregarding deterministic and complete precise probabilistic predictions for decisions with time horizons of several decades or centuries and by constructing imprecise probabilistic predictions and using these in approaches for robust decision-making. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Decision making; Floods; Forecasting; Probability distributions; Sea level; Coastal flood risks; Deep uncertainties; Deterministic scenario; Impact assessments; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Long-term management; Probabilistic prediction; Uncertainty representation; Uncertainty analysis; coastal protection; confidence interval; decision making; flooding; probability; satellite laser ranging; sea level change; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147502
作者单位	Global Climate Forum, Neue Promenade 6, Berlin, 10178, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van der Pol T.D.,Hinkel J.. Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?[J],2019,152(2020-03-04).
APA	van der Pol T.D.,&Hinkel J..(2019).Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?.Climatic Change,152(2020-03-04).
MLA	van der Pol T.D.,et al."Uncertainty representations of mean sea-level change: a telephone game?".Climatic Change 152.2020-03-04(2019).