气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2347-3
	A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections
	Robinson B.; Herman J.D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	431
结束页码	448
卷号	152 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Recent water resources planning studies have proposed climate adaptation strategies in which infrastructure and policy actions are triggered by observed thresholds or “signposts.” However, the success of such strategies depends on whether thresholds can be accurately linked to future vulnerabilities. This study presents a framework for testing the ability of adaptation thresholds to dynamically identify vulnerable scenarios within ensemble projections. Streamflow projections for 91 river sites predominantly in the western USA are used as a case study in which vulnerability is determined by the ensemble members with the lowest 10% of end-of-century mean annual flow. Illustrative planning thresholds are defined through time for each site based on the mean streamflow below which a specified fraction of scenarios is vulnerable. We perform a leave-one-out cross-validation to compute the frequency of incorrectly identifying or failing to identify a vulnerable scenario (false positives and false negatives, respectively). Results show that in general, this method of defining thresholds can identify vulnerable scenarios with low false positive rates (< 10%), but with false negative rates for many rivers remaining higher than random chance until roughly 2060. This finding highlights the tradeoff between frequently triggering unnecessary action and failing to identify potential vulnerabilities until later in the century, and suggests room for improvement in the threshold-setting technique that could be benchmarked with this approach. This testing framework could extend to thresholds defined with multivariate statistics, or to any application using thresholds and ensemble projections, such as long-term flood and drought risk, or sea level rise. © 2018, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Multivariant analysis; Sea level; Stream flow; Water resources; Water supply; Adaptation strategies; Dynamic classification; False negative rate; False positive rates; Leave-one-out cross validations; Multivariate statistics; Testing framework; Water resources planning; Ability testing; adaptive management; drought; flood; sea level change; streamflow; testing method; vulnerability; water supply; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147496
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robinson B.,Herman J.D.. A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections[J],2019,152(2020-03-04).
APA	Robinson B.,&Herman J.D..(2019).A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections.Climatic Change,152(2020-03-04).
MLA	Robinson B.,et al."A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections".Climatic Change 152.2020-03-04(2019).