气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02405-w
	Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress
	Parkes B.; Cronin J.; Dessens O.; Sultan B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	461
结束页码	476
卷号	154 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	We applied two metrics, apparent temperature and humidex, to calculate heat stress in both present and future climates. We use an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa simulations to estimate heat stress during a baseline period and at two specific warming levels, 2 and 4 ∘C above pre-industrial. The increase in temperatures and changes to the precipitation distribution under climate change are projected to increase the intensity of heat stress events in Sahelian Africa and introduce new heat stress events in Northern and Central Africa. As the intensity of heat stress increases, it is expected that the use of energy-intensive cooling will increase. The energy system, therefore, will need to be able to supply more energy to power fans or air conditioning units. The cooling demand to turn a heat stress event into a non-heat stress event is computed. This value is then weighted by the population to find the total cooling required to prevent heat stress across the continent. Country-level results indicate that the greatest increases in cooling demand will occur in countries with densely populated regions, most notably Nigeria. Supplying this additional cooling demand will present the greatest challenge to less developed countries like Somalia. We find the least-cost future energy system that meets the projected increase in demand and derive the increase in energy system costs with the TIAM-UCL model. The total increase in energy costs to prevent heat stress is found to be $51bn by 2035 and $487bn by 2076. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air conditioning; Thermal stress; Air conditioning units; Apparent temperature; Densely populated regions; Future energies; Intensive cooling; Less developed countries; Precipitation distribution; Sahelian Africa; Climate change; air conditioning; climate change; cooling; cost analysis; demand analysis; developing world; energy planning; environmental stress; future prospect; heat wave; precipitation assessment; Central Africa; Nigeria; Somalia
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147467
作者单位	Sorbonne Universités, (UPMC, Univ. Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN LOCEAN/IPSL, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, F-75005, France; School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, United Kingdom; Energy Institute, University College London, London, WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom; ESPACE-DEV, Univ Montpellier, IRD, Univ Guyane, Univ Réunion, Univ Antilles, Univ Avignon, Montpellier, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Parkes B.,Cronin J.,Dessens O.,et al. Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress[J],2019,154(2020-03-04).
APA	Parkes B.,Cronin J.,Dessens O.,&Sultan B..(2019).Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress.Climatic Change,154(2020-03-04).
MLA	Parkes B.,et al."Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress".Climatic Change 154.2020-03-04(2019).