气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of climate warming; cultivar shifts; and phenological dates on rice growth period length in China after correction for seasonal shift effects

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02450-5
	Impacts of climate warming; cultivar shifts; and phenological dates on rice growth period length in China after correction for seasonal shift effects
	Ye T.; Zong S.; Kleidon A.; Yuan W.; Wang Y.; Shi P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	127
结束页码	143
卷号	155 期号:1
英文摘要	Crop phenology changes are important indicators of climate change. Climate change impacts on crop phenology are generally investigated through statistical analysis of the relationship between growth period length and growth period mean temperature. However, growth periods may be either earlier or later in a given year; hence, changes in mean temperature indicate both the effects of climate change and those attributable to seasonal temperature differences. Failure to consider temperature change resulting from seasonal shifts can lead to biased estimation of warming trends and their corresponding impact on phenology. We evaluated this potential bias in rice phenology change in 892 phenology series from China by applying time series regression control for phenological dates. The results indicate that the true magnitudes of climate change for early rice, late rice, and single rice are 0.20–0.56, 0.23–0.86, and 0.28–0.38 K/decade, after correction for the effects of seasonal shifts. The effects of seasonal shifts of growth periods led to underestimates of the magnitude of climate change by 0.16–0.22 and 0.05–0.08 K/decade for early rice and single rice, respectively, and an overestimate of the effect for late rice of 0.02–0.06 K/decade. Correspondingly, the net warming impacts on growth period length after correcting for the effects of seasonal shifts were − 2.7 d/K for early rice, − 4.8 d/K for late rice, and − 3.1 d/K for single rice, which were weaker for early and single rice, but stronger for late rice, relative to previous reports. Changes in growth period length were most closely associated with variation in phenological dates, while their relationship with climate change was less pronounced. Our results indicate that earlier phenological dates and prolonged-duration cultivars have been adopted to offset the impact of climate change, providing further evidence of active adaptation of rice cultivation practice to climate change in China. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biology; Crops; Cultivation; Biased estimation; Climate change impact; Climate warming; Mean temperature; Rice cultivation; Seasonal temperature; Temperature changes; Time-series regression; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; cultivar; environmental indicator; growth; phenology; rice; seasonal variation; temperature effect; China
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147453
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, United States; Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, 07701, Germany; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 519082, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ye T.,Zong S.,Kleidon A.,et al. Impacts of climate warming; cultivar shifts; and phenological dates on rice growth period length in China after correction for seasonal shift effects[J],2019,155(1).
APA	Ye T.,Zong S.,Kleidon A.,Yuan W.,Wang Y.,&Shi P..(2019).Impacts of climate warming; cultivar shifts; and phenological dates on rice growth period length in China after correction for seasonal shift effects.Climatic Change,155(1).
MLA	Ye T.,et al."Impacts of climate warming; cultivar shifts; and phenological dates on rice growth period length in China after correction for seasonal shift effects".Climatic Change 155.1(2019).