气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02430-9
	Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources
	Borges de Amorim P.; Chaffe P.B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	37
结束页码	57
卷号	155 期号:1
英文摘要	The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has put a lot of efforts to describe uncertainties and to judge the confidence level of its major conclusions. Despite a guidance to communicate uncertainty, the assignment of confidence is not sufficiently clear and, thus, hard to be reproduced by the extern community. By conducting a synthesis assessment about the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian water resources, we identified an opportunity to illustrate the characterization of evidence as adopted in IPCC reports. We propose a method to describe the evidence from model outputs wherein the quality and amount of studies, as well as the consistency among their conclusions, are subject of a transparent rating procedure. In summary, the more comprehensive the study in sampling uncertainties, the higher its quality. Likewise, the amount and consistency among conclusions is assigned in a systematic way. The method is applied for synthesizing a collection of 42 peer-reviewed articles. It reveals important aspects about the evidence of the potential impacts of climate change in the Brazilian water resources, such as changes into a drier hydrological regime. However, the use of multi-model ensemble, the evaluation of models, and the observational data is limited. The proposed method enables consistent communication of the degree of evidence in a transparent, traceable, and comprehensive fashion. The method can be used as a tool to support experts on their judgment. The approach is reproducible and can guide synthesis work not only in Brazil but anywhere else. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Water resources; Climate change impact; Confidence levels; Hydrological regime; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Multi-model ensemble; Observational data; Rating procedures; Sampling uncertainties; Climate change; environmental assessment; hydrological regime; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; water resource
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147452
作者单位	Graduate Program in Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, 88040-900, Brazil; Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, 88040-900, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Borges de Amorim P.,Chaffe P.B.. Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources[J],2019,155(1).
APA	Borges de Amorim P.,&Chaffe P.B..(2019).Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources.Climatic Change,155(1).
MLA	Borges de Amorim P.,et al."Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources".Climatic Change 155.1(2019).