气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin; Myanmar

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02444-3
	A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin; Myanmar
	Ghimire U.; Babel M.S.; Shrestha S.; Srinivasan G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	59
结束页码	79
卷号	155 期号:1
英文摘要	In this study, bias-corrected daily rainfall data of eight global climate models (GCMs) was used as input for a hydrologic model (Hydrological Engineering Center - Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS)) to simulate daily streamflow in the Upper Ayerawaddy River basin (UARB), Myanmar. Monthly, seasonal, annual, and decadal mean flows, calculated for the baseline (1975–2014), were compared with projections for future periods (2040s: 2021–2060 and 2080s: 2061–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The spread of low flows (10th and 25th percentile of daily flows) and high flows (75th, 90th, and 100th percentiles) were analyzed for each period. The ensemble of GCMs indicates an increase in mean monthly (except in October and November), seasonal (except post-monsoon), annual, and decadal rainfalls and corresponding flows in the UARB. Future low flows are expected to have high variability while high flows are expected to have higher means than that of baseline. The density distribution analysis of baseline and future flows reveals that future periods are likely to experience an increase in the magnitude of mean flows but a decrease in variability. Rainfall extremes indicated by 1-day maximum rainfall, 5-day consecutive maximum rainfall, and the number of extreme rainfall days reveals frequent wetter extremes in the UARB under future climate conditions. Extreme floods, as estimated by the frequency analysis of daily flows, are also expected to become more frequent during the future periods. These changes in flows can be attributed solely to climate change since the analyses did not account impacts of possible land use change and water resources development in the UARB. This study is a good starting point to assess future flows, and further research is recommended to address the limitations of this study for improved understanding and assessments that will prove useful for planning purposes in the study area. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Ayerawaddy River basin; Climate models; Ensemble; Multi-temporal analysis; Streamflow
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Flood control; Land use; Rain; Stream flow; Water resources; Watersheds; Density distributions; Ensemble; Global climate model; Hydrological Engineering Center; Hydrological modeling; Multi-temporal analysis; River basins; Water resources development; Climate models; baseline conditions; CMIP; extreme event; frequency analysis; global climate; land use change; magnitude; monsoon; rainfall; streamflow; Myanmar
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147451
作者单位	Department of Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Khlong Nueng, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand; Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), Khlong Nueng, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ghimire U.,Babel M.S.,Shrestha S.,et al. A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin; Myanmar[J],2019,155(1).
APA	Ghimire U.,Babel M.S.,Shrestha S.,&Srinivasan G..(2019).A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin; Myanmar.Climatic Change,155(1).
MLA	Ghimire U.,et al."A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin; Myanmar".Climatic Change 155.1(2019).