气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02451-4
	Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production
	Guarin J.R.; Emberson L.; Simpson D.; Hernandez-Ochoa I.M.; Rowland D.; Asseng S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	157
结束页码	174
卷号	155 期号:2
英文摘要	Wheat is an important staple crop sensitive to negative effects from elevated tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations, but the impacts of future O3 concentrations on wheat production in Mexico are unknown. To determine these impacts, the O3-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model was used to simulate wheat production in Mexico using a baseline scenario with pre-industrial O3 concentrations from 1980 to 2010 and five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from 2041 to 2070 paired with future O3 concentrations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre–West (MSC-W) model. Thirty-two representative major wheat-producing locations in Mexico were simulated assuming both irrigated and rainfed conditions for two O3 sensitivity cultivar classifications. The simulations showed large variability (after averaging over 30 years) in yield loss, ranging from 7 to 26% because of O3 impact, depending on the location, irrigation, and climate change emissions scenario. After upscaling and aggregating the simulations to the country scale based on observed irrigated and rainfed production, national wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O3 impact, depending on the cultivar O3 sensitivity. This yield loss caused by O3 is comparable with, or even larger than, the impact from projected future climatic change in temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, O3 impacts should be considered in future agricultural impact assessments. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Crop model; Emissions scenario; Food security; Future impact; Wheat yield
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Crops; Food supply; Ozone; Troposphere; Crop model; Emissions scenarios; Food security; Future impact; Wheat yield; Climate change; agricultural modeling; agricultural production; agrometeorology; biogenic emission; concentration (composition); cultivar; food security; future prospect; ozone; troposphere; wheat; yield response; Mexico [North America]; Triticum aestivum
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147445
作者单位	Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment and Geography Department, University of York, York, United Kingdom; EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guarin J.R.,Emberson L.,Simpson D.,et al. Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production[J],2019,155(2).
APA	Guarin J.R.,Emberson L.,Simpson D.,Hernandez-Ochoa I.M.,Rowland D.,&Asseng S..(2019).Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production.Climatic Change,155(2).
MLA	Guarin J.R.,et al."Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production".Climatic Change 155.2(2019).